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The South Australia region of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) displays some of the highest levels of price volatility observed in modern electricity markets. This paper outlines an approach to probabilistic forecasting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Cameron Cornell , Nam Trong Dinh , S. Ali Pourmousavi

Motivated by the increasing integration among electricity markets, in this paper we propose two different methods to incorporate market integration in electricity price forecasting and to improve the predictive performance. First, we…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-12-08 Jesus Lago , Fjo De Ridder , Peter Vrancx , Bart De Schutter

Accurate price predictions are essential for market participants in order to optimize their operational schedules and bidding strategies, especially in the current context where electricity prices become more volatile and less predictable…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-09-26 Naga Venkata Sai Jitin Jami , Juraj Kardoš , Olaf Schenk , Harald Köstler

Precise probabilistic forecasts are fundamental for energy risk management, and there is a wide range of both statistical and machine learning models for this purpose. Inherent to these probabilistic models is some form of uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Andreas Lebedev , Abhinav Das , Sven Pappert , Stephan Schlüter

Accurate and efficient imbalance electricity price forecasting is critical for industrial energy trading systems, especially as battery assets and automated bidding pipelines increasingly participate in balancing markets. However, real-time…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-12 Runyao Yu , Julia Lin , Derek W. Bunn , Jochen Stiasny , Wentao Wang , Yujie Chen , Tara Esterl , Peter Palensky , Jochen L. Cremer

Short-term electricity markets are becoming more relevant due to less-predictable renewable energy sources, attracting considerable attention from the industry. The balancing market is the closest to real-time and the most volatile among…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-14 Ciaran O'Connor , Joseph Collins , Steven Prestwich , Andrea Visentin

This paper develops a machine learning-driven portfolio optimization framework for virtual bidding in electricity markets considering both risk constraint and price sensitivity. The algorithmic trading strategy is developed from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-08 Yinglun Li , Nanpeng Yu , Wei Wang

Accurate prediction of electricity day-ahead prices is essential in competitive electricity markets. Although stationary electricity-price forecasting techniques have received considerable attention, research on non-stationary methods is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-14 Antonio Malpica-Morales , Miguel A. Duran-Olivencia , Serafim Kalliadasis

In the modern power market, electricity trading is an extremely competitive industry. More accurate price forecast is crucial to help electricity producers and traders make better decisions. In this paper, a novel method of convolutional…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-03-17 Hsu-Yung Cheng , Ping-Huan Kuo , Yamin Shen , Chiou-Jye Huang

We propose a novel machine learning approach for probabilistic forecasting of hourly day-ahead electricity prices. In contrast with the recent advances in data-rich probabilistic forecasting, which approximates distributions with few…

General Economics · Economics 2025-07-04 Jozef Barunik , Lubos Hanus

Accurately forecasting electricity price volatility is crucial for effective risk management and decision-making. Traditional forecasting models often fall short in capturing the complex, non-linear dynamics of electricity markets,…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Haochen Xue , Chenghao Liu , Chong Zhang , Yuxuan Chen , Angxiao Zong , Zhaodong Wu , Yulong Li , Jiayi Liu , Kaiyu Liang , Zhixiang Lu , Ruobing Li , Jionglong Su

Electricity price is a key factor affecting the decision-making for all market participants. Accurate forecasting of electricity prices is very important and is also very challenging since electricity price is highly volatile due to various…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-28 Vasudharini Sridharan , Mingjian Tuo , Xingpeng Li

This paper employs machine learning algorithms to forecast German electricity spot market prices. The forecasts utilize in particular bid and ask order book data from the spot market but also fundamental market data like renewable infeed…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-20 Simon Schnürch , Andreas Wagner

Forecasting electricity prices is a challenging task and an active area of research since the 1990s and the deregulation of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. Although it aims at predicting both spot and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-23 Katarzyna Maciejowska , Bartosz Uniejewski , Rafał Weron

The study of Day-Ahead prices in the electricity market is one of the most popular problems in time series forecasting. Previous research has focused on employing increasingly complex learning algorithms to capture the sophisticated…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-29 Carlos Sebastián , Carlos E. González-Guillén , Jesús Juan

Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential for market participants to support operational planning and risk management, yet remains challenging due to strong volatility, nonlinear dynamics, and frequent extreme price spikes.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Houxuan Zhou , Sriram Prasad , Chenghao Huang , Jiajie Feng , Hao Wang

While the field of electricity price forecasting has benefited from plenty of contributions in the last two decades, it arguably lacks a rigorous approach to evaluating new predictive algorithms. The latter are often compared using unique,…

Applications · Statistics 2022-04-07 Jesus Lago , Grzegorz Marcjasz , Bart De Schutter , Rafał Weron

This study investigates the performance of machine learning models in forecasting electricity Day-Ahead Market (DAM) prices using short historical training windows, with a focus on detecting seasonal trends and price spikes. We evaluate…

Unpredictability of renewable energy sources coupled with the complexity of those methods used for various purposes in this area calls for the development of robust methods such as DL models within the renewable energy domain. Given the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-07 Lutfu Sua , Haibo Wang , Jun Huang

Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is a branch of forecasting on the interface of electrical engineering, statistics, computer science, and finance, which focuses on predicting prices in wholesale electricity markets for a whole spectrum…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-04-26 Arkadiusz Jędrzejewski , Jesus Lago , Grzegorz Marcjasz , Rafał Weron