English
Related papers

Related papers: Robust Probabilistic Load Forecasting for a Single…

200 papers

Time series foundation models (FMs) have emerged as a popular paradigm for zero-shot multi-domain forecasting. These models are trained on numerous diverse datasets and claim to be effective forecasters across multiple different time series…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-05-19 Anubha Goel , Puneet Pasricha , Martin Magris , Juho Kanniainen

Accurate short-term energy consumption forecasting is essential for efficient power grid management, resource allocation, and market stability. Traditional time-series models often fail to capture the complex, non-linear dependencies and…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Abhishek Maity , Viraj Tukarul

Many businesses and industries require accurate forecasts for weekly time series nowadays. However, the forecasting literature does not currently provide easy-to-use, automatic, reproducible and accurate approaches dedicated to this task.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Rakshitha Godahewa , Christoph Bergmeir , Geoffrey I. Webb , Pablo Montero-Manso

Long-range time series forecasting remains challenging, as it requires capturing non-stationary and multi-scale temporal dependencies while maintaining noise robustness, efficiency, and stability. Transformer-based architectures such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Stefan-Alexandru Jura , Mihai Udrescu , Alexandru Topirceanu

Off-the-shelf machine learning algorithms for prediction such as regularized logistic regression cannot exploit the information of time-varying features without previously using an aggregation procedure of such sequential data. However,…

Applications · Statistics 2019-09-26 C. Gary Mena , Arno De Caigny , Kristof Coussement , Koen W. De Bock , Stefan Lessmann

Short Term Load Forecast (STLF) is necessary for effective scheduling, operation optimization trading, and decision-making for electricity consumers. Modern and efficient machine learning methods are recalled nowadays to manage complicated…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-20 Junjie Hu , Brenda López Cabrera , Awdesch Melzer

Real-world time series often exhibit a non-stationary nature, degrading the performance of pre-trained forecasting models. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses this by adjusting models during inference, but existing methods typically update…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Heitor R. Medeiros , Hossein Sharifi-Noghabi , Gabriel L. Oliveira , Saghar Irandoust

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) is a fundamental post-training strategy to align Large Language Models (LLMs) with human intent. However, traditional SFT often ignores the one-to-many nature of language by forcing alignment with a single…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-07 Tao Liu , Taiqiang Wu , Runming Yang , Shaoning Sun , Junjie Wang , Yujiu Yang

This paper aims to study the prediction of the bank stability index based on the Time Series Transformer model. The bank stability index is an important indicator to measure the health status and risk resistance of financial institutions.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-12-06 Wenying Sun , Zhen Xu , Wenqing Zhang , Kunyuan Ma , You Wu , Mengfang Sun

This paper presents a novel approach to electricity price forecasting (EPF) using a pure Transformer model. As opposed to other alternatives, no other recurrent network is used in combination to the attention mechanism. Hence, showing that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-11 Oscar Llorente , Jose Portela

Effectively modeling non-stationary dynamics in probabilistic multivariate time series(MTS) forecasting requires balancing expressiveness with robustness. Existing parametric approaches benefit from strong inductive biases but lack…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Jinglin Li , Jun Tan , QI Fang , Ning Gui

Financial time series forecasting is fundamentally an information fusion challenge, yet most existing models rely on static architectures that struggle to integrate heterogeneous knowledge sources or adjust to rapid regime shifts.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Hafiz Saif Ur Rehman , Ling Liu , Kaleem Ullah Qasim

This paper presents an ensemble forecasting method that shows strong results on the M4 Competition dataset by decreasing feature and model selection assumptions, termed DONUT (DO Not UTilize human beliefs). Our assumption reductions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Lars Lien Ankile , Kjartan Krange

While recent advancements in foundation models have significantly impacted machine learning, rigorous tests on the performance of time series foundation models (TSFMs) remain largely underexplored. This paper presents an empirical study…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-09 Syamantak Datta Gupta

Residential buildings account for a significant portion (35\%) of the total electricity consumption in the U.S. as of 2022. As more distributed energy resources are installed in buildings, their potential to provide flexibility to the grid…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-13 Patrick Salter , Qiuhua Huang , Paulo Cesar Tabares-Velasco

Volatility forecasting becomes challenging when market conditions shift and model performance varies across market states. Motivated by this instability, we develop a risk-sensitive specialist routing framework for ETF volatility…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-17 Tenghan Zhong

Large Language Models (LLMs) are being applied in a wide array of settings, well beyond the typical language-oriented use cases. In particular, LLMs are increasingly used as a plug-and-play method for fitting data and generating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Hejia Liu , Mochen Yang , Gediminas Adomavicius

Time series forecasting is critical for decision-making across dynamic domains such as energy, finance, transportation, and cloud computing. However, real-world time series often exhibit non-stationarity, including temporal distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Junkai Lu , Peng Chen , Chenjuan Guo , Yang Shu , Meng Wang , Bin Yang

In the fields of computer vision (CV) and remote sensing (RS), foundational models typically follow the "big data + large model parameters" paradigm. However, the application of this strategy in seismic data processing faces several…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-03-14 Xintong Dong , Wenshuo Yu , Jun Lin , Zhenbo Guo , Hongzhou Wang , Jianhao Yang

In the smart grid of the future, accurate load forecasts on the level of individual clients can help to balance supply and demand locally and to prevent grid outages. While the number of monitored clients will increase with the ongoing…