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Excessively changing policies in many real world scenarios is difficult, unethical, or expensive. After all, doctor guidelines, tax codes, and price lists can only be reprinted so often. We may thus want to only change a policy when it is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-16 Benjamin Lansdell , Sofia Triantafillou , Konrad Kording

Stochastic programming is often challenged by epistemic uncertainty, where critical probability distributions are poorly characterized or unknown due to a lack of data. To address this, we pioneer a novel framework for stochastic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-19 Shixin Liu , Ming Gao , Jian Hu

When data is collected in an adaptive manner, even simple methods like ordinary least squares can exhibit non-normal asymptotic behavior. As an undesirable consequence, hypothesis tests and confidence intervals based on asymptotic normality…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-23 Koulik Khamaru , Yash Deshpande , Tor Lattimore , Lester Mackey , Martin J. Wainwright

Adaptive experiments are used extensively in online platforms, healthcare and biotechnology, and a variety of other settings. In many of these applications, the main goal is not to precisely estimate a treatment effect, but to demonstrate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Guido Imbens , Lorenzo Masoero , Alexander Rakhlin , Thomas S. Richardson , Suhas Vijaykumar

Safety is a desirable property that can immensely increase the applicability of learning algorithms in real-world decision-making problems. It is much easier for a company to deploy an algorithm that is safe, i.e., guaranteed to perform at…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-07 Abbas Kazerouni , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh , Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori , Benjamin Van Roy

We consider contextual linear bandits over networks, a class of sequential decision-making problems where learning occurs simultaneously across multiple locations and the reward distributions share structural similarities while also…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Chuyun Deng , Huiwen Jia

We consider the problem of efficient inference of the Average Treatment Effect in a sequential experiment where the policy governing the assignment of subjects to treatment or control can change over time. We first provide a central limit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-05 Thomas Cook , Alan Mishler , Aaditya Ramdas

The deployment of Multi-Armed Bandits (MAB) has become commonplace in many economic applications. However, regret guarantees for even state-of-the-art linear bandit algorithms (such as Optimism in the Face of Uncertainty Linear bandit…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-28 Jingwen Zhang , Yifang Chen , Amandeep Singh

We study linear bandits when the underlying reward function is not linear. Existing work relies on a uniform misspecification parameter $\epsilon$ that measures the sup-norm error of the best linear approximation. This results in an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-21 Chong Liu , Ming Yin , Yu-Xiang Wang

We study the linear stochastic bandit problem, relaxing the standard i.i.d. assumption on the observation noise. As an alternative to this restrictive assumption, we allow the noise terms across rounds to be sub-Gaussian but interdependent,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-28 Baptiste Abélès , Eugenio Clerico , Hamish Flynn , Gergely Neu

The multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem is a classical problem that models sequential decision-making under uncertainty in reinforcement learning. In this study, we propose a new generalized upper confidence bound (UCB) algorithm (GWA-UCB1) by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-29 Nobuhito Manome , Shuji Shinohara , Ung-il Chung

We propose a novel technique for analyzing adaptive sampling called the {\em Simulator}. Our approach differs from the existing methods by considering not how much information could be gathered by any fixed sampling strategy, but how…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-25 Max Simchowitz , Kevin Jamieson , Benjamin Recht

As an extension of the classical multi-armed bandit problem, multi-fidelity multi-armed bandits (MF-MAB) enable individual arms to be evaluated using diverse feedback sources that vary in both cost and accuracy. Prior stochastic models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Muyun Lu , Haoyang Hong , Huazheng Wang , Ying Lin

Conservative Contextual Bandits (CCBs) address safety in sequential decision making by requiring that an agent's policy, along with minimizing regret, also satisfies a safety constraint: the performance is not worse than a baseline policy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-10 Rohan Deb , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh , Arindam Banerjee

The rise of large-scale pretrained models has made it feasible to generate predictive or synthetic features at low cost, raising the question of how to incorporate such surrogate predictions into downstream decision-making. We study this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-03 Hao Yan , Heyan Zhang , Yongyi Guo

Adapting to a priori unknown noise level is a very important but challenging problem in sequential decision-making as efficient exploration typically requires knowledge of the noise level, which is often loosely specified. We report…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-11 Kwang-Sung Jun , Jungtaek Kim

We investigate two perturbation approaches to overcome conservatism that optimism based algorithms chronically suffer from in practice. The first approach replaces optimism with a simple randomization when using confidence sets. The second…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-13 Baekjin Kim , Ambuj Tewari

Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) method is arguably the most celebrated one used in online decision making with partial information feedback. Existing techniques for constructing confidence bounds are typically built upon various concentration…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-01 Botao Hao , Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori , Zheng Wen , Guang Cheng

Bayesian bandit algorithms with approximate Bayesian inference have been widely used in real-world applications. However, there is a large discrepancy between the superior practical performance of these approaches and their theoretical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-13 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Amirhossein Meisami , Haofeng Zhang

This paper revisits a fundamental problem in statistical inference from a non-asymptotic theoretical viewpoint $\unicode{x2013}$ the construction of confidence sets. We establish a finite-sample bound for the estimator, characterizing its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-03 Lang Liu , Zaid Harchaoui