Related papers: Equitable Longevity Risk Sharing or, the raison d'…
Thailand has entered into an aging society since the year 2000. Using the 2017 Survey of the Older Persons in Thailand collected by Thailand National Statistical Office, this study uses cross tabulation, random forest with variable…
This paper researches the problem of purchasing deferred term insurance in the context of financial planning to maximize the probability of achieving a personal financial goal. Specifically, our study starts from the perspective of hedging…
The existing life table method needs to calculate the age-specific mortality first, not only has too many and complicated calculation steps, but also introduces the multiple approximation to bring error. This paper redefines the probability…
This article examines the impact of China's delayed retirement announcement on households' savings behavior using data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). The article finds that treated households, on average, experience an 8% increase…
The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…
When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, forecasts at the sub-national level should aggregate consistently across the…
Labor share, the fraction of economic output accrued as wages, is inexplicably declining in industrialized countries. Whilst numerous prior works attempt to explain the decline via economic factors, our novel approach links the decline to…
Quantifying the number of deaths caused by the COVID-19 crisis has been an ongoing challenge for scientists, and no golden standard to do so has yet been established. We propose a principled approach to calculate age-adjusted yearly excess…
We introduce a statistical framework for combining data from multiple large longitudinal cardiovascular cohorts to enable the study of long-term cardiovascular health starting in early adulthood. Using data from seven cohorts belonging to…
The basic principle of any version of insurance is the paradigm that exchanging risk by sharing it in a pool is beneficial for the participants. In case of independent risks with a finite mean this is the case for risk averse decision…
Primates exhibit a robust deviation from canonical allometric scaling: at fixed body mass, their lifespans exceed those of non-primate mammals by factors of two to three. A rhesus macaque (8 kg) lives 25-40 years, whereas a cat of similar…
This paper is part of the Global Income Dynamics Project cross-country comparison of earnings inequality, volatility, and mobility. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) infrastructure…
This paper proposes and investigates an optimal pair investment/pension policy for a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension scheme. The social planner can invest in a buffer fund in order to guarantee a minimal pension amount. The model aims at…
The analysis of the demographic transition of the past century and a half, using both empirical data and mathematical models, has rendered a wealth of well-established facts, including the dramatic increases in life expectancy. Despite…
Lampreys are one of the oldest species in the world, living longer than dinosaurs, which is related to the ability to change the sex ratio during their lifespan. In this paper, to understand how sex ratio and food quantity affect the…
Childhood socioeconomic disadvantage is a well established determinant of health in later life. Less is known about how early-life deprivation unfolds when individuals experience major institutional transformation and migration in…
The state-of-the-art proposes Life Care Annuities, that have been recently designed as variable annuity contracts with Long-Term Care payouts and Guaranteed Lifelong Withdrawal Benefits. In this paper, we propose more general features for…
We develop an empirical likelihood (EL) framework for random forests and related ensemble methods, providing a likelihood-based approach to quantify their statistical uncertainty. Exploiting the incomplete $U$-statistic structure inherent…
Random survival forests (RSF) are a powerful method for risk prediction of right-censored outcomes in biomedical research. RSF use the log-rank split criterion to form an ensemble of survival trees. The most common approach to evaluate the…
Due to the presence of reporting and settlement delay, claim data sets collected by non-life insurance companies are typically incomplete, facing right censored claim count and claim severity observations. Current practice in non-life…