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Probabilistic power flow (PPF) plays a critical role in power system analysis. However, the high computational burden makes it challenging for the practical implementation of PPF. This paper proposes a model-based deep learning approach to…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-09-17 Yan Yang , Zhifang Yang , Juan Yu , Baosen Zhang

Training neural networks has traditionally relied on backpropagation (BP), a gradient-based algorithm that, despite its widespread success, suffers from key limitations in both biological and hardware perspectives. These include backward…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Nazmus Saadat As-Saquib , A N M Nafiz Abeer , Hung-Ta Chien , Byung-Jun Yoon , Suhas Kumar , Su-in Yi

Probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) is a key component in the extended tool-chain required for efficient management of smart energy grids. Neural networks are widely considered to achieve improved prediction performances, supporting highly…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-01-12 Alessandro Brusaferri , Matteo Matteucci , Stefano Spinelli , Andrea Vitali

The question whether inputs are valid for the problem a neural network is trying to solve has sparked interest in out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. It is widely assumed that Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are well suited for this task,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-22 Francesco D'Angelo , Christian Henning

Deep learning has been the engine powering many successes of data science. However, the deep neural network (DNN), as the basic model of deep learning, is often excessively over-parameterized, causing many difficulties in training,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-09 Yan Sun , Qifan Song , Faming Liang

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a probabilistic interpretation for deep learning models by imposing a prior distribution over model parameters and inferring a posterior distribution based on observed data. The model sampled from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-15 Van-Anh Nguyen , Tung-Long Vuong , Hoang Phan , Thanh-Toan Do , Dinh Phung , Trung Le

Active learning methods for neural networks are usually based on greedy criteria which ultimately give a single new design point for the evaluation. Such an approach requires either some heuristics to sample a batch of design points at one…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-28 Evgenii Tsymbalov , Sergei Makarychev , Alexander Shapeev , Maxim Panov

Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs. In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Steven Adriaensen , Herilalaina Rakotoarison , Samuel Müller , Frank Hutter

Sum-product networks (SPNs) are probabilistic models characterized by exact and fast evaluation of fundamental probabilistic operations. Its superior computational tractability has led to applications in many fields, such as machine…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-19 Soma Yokoi , Issei Sato

Bayesian neural networks offer better estimates of model uncertainty compared to frequentist networks. However, inference involving Bayesian models requires multiple instantiations or sampling of the network parameters, requiring…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-01-30 Prabodh Katti , Anagha Nimbekar , Chen Li , Amit Acharyya , Bashir M. Al-Hashimi , Bipin Rajendran

Bayesian neural networks (BNN) and deep ensembles are principled approaches to estimate the predictive uncertainty of a deep learning model. However their practicality in real-time, industrial-scale applications are limited due to their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Jeremiah Zhe Liu , Zi Lin , Shreyas Padhy , Dustin Tran , Tania Bedrax-Weiss , Balaji Lakshminarayanan

Mathematical solvers use parametrized Optimization Problems (OPs) as inputs to yield optimal decisions. In many real-world settings, some of these parameters are unknown or uncertain. Recent research focuses on predicting the value of these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Alan A. Lahoud , Erik Schaffernicht , Johannes A. Stork

In processing and manufacturing industries, there has been a large push to produce higher quality products and ensure maximum efficiency of processes. This requires approaches to effectively detect and resolve disturbances to ensure optimal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-05 Weike Sun , Antonio R. C. Paiva , Peng Xu , Anantha Sundaram , Richard D. Braatz

Recent work has shown that the prior over functions induced by a deep Bayesian neural network (BNN) behaves as a Gaussian process (GP) as the width of all layers becomes large. However, many BNN applications are concerned with the BNN…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-30 Jiri Hron , Yasaman Bahri , Roman Novak , Jeffrey Pennington , Jascha Sohl-Dickstein

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) can overcome the problem of overconfidence that plagues traditional frequentist deep neural networks, and are hence considered to be a key enabler for reliable AI systems. However, conventional hardware…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-01-30 Prabodh Katti , Nicolas Skatchkovsky , Osvaldo Simeone , Bipin Rajendran , Bashir M. Al-Hashimi

Modern deep learning models have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for many data modalities. However, their application to many real-world tasks is restricted by poor uncertainty estimates, such as overconfidence on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-16 Ben Adlam , Jaehoon Lee , Lechao Xiao , Jeffrey Pennington , Jasper Snoek

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are powerful tools for various computer vision tasks, yet they often struggle with reliable uncertainty quantification - a critical requirement for real-world applications. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Gianni Franchi , Olivier Laurent , Maxence Leguéry , Andrei Bursuc , Andrea Pilzer , Angela Yao

In recent years, Artificial Intelligence (AI) models have achieved remarkable success across various domains, yet challenges persist in two critical areas: ensuring robustness against uncertain inputs and drastically increasing model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-20 Erik B. Terres-Escudero , Javier Del Ser , Aitor Martínez-Seras , Pablo Garcia-Bringas

Traditional neural network regression models provide only point estimates, failing to capture predictive uncertainty. Probabilistic neural networks (PNNs) address this limitation by producing output distributions, enabling the construction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki

We formulate natural gradient variational inference (VI), expectation propagation (EP), and posterior linearisation (PL) as extensions of Newton's method for optimising the parameters of a Bayesian posterior distribution. This viewpoint…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-07 William J. Wilkinson , Simo Särkkä , Arno Solin