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Heteroscedastic regression models a Gaussian variable's mean and variance as a function of covariates. Parametric methods that employ neural networks for these parameter maps can capture complex relationships in the data. Yet, optimizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Andrew Stirn , Hans-Hermann Wessels , Megan Schertzer , Laura Pereira , Neville E. Sanjana , David A. Knowles

Capturing aleatoric uncertainty is a critical part of many machine learning systems. In deep learning, a common approach to this end is to train a neural network to estimate the parameters of a heteroscedastic Gaussian distribution by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-04 Maximilian Seitzer , Arash Tavakoli , Dimitrije Antic , Georg Martius

Obtaining heteroscedastic predictive uncertainties from a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) is vital to many applications. Often, heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainties are learned as outputs of the BNN in addition to the predictive means,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-01 David J. Schodt , Ryan Brown , Michael Merritt , Samuel Park , Delsin Menolascino , Mark A. Peot

We propose and investigate new complementary methodologies for estimating predictive variance networks in regression neural networks. We derive a locally aware mini-batching scheme that result in sparse robust gradients, and show how to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-05 Nicki S. Detlefsen , Martin Jørgensen , Søren Hauberg

Real-world network datasets are typically obtained in ways that fail to capture all edges. The patterns of missing data are often non-uniform as they reflect biases and other shortcomings of different data collection methods. Nevertheless,…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-04-25 Xie He , Amir Ghasemian , Eun Lee , Alice Schwarze , Aaron Clauset , Peter J. Mucha

While deep neural networks are highly performant and successful in a wide range of real-world problems, estimating their predictive uncertainty remains a challenging task. To address this challenge, we propose and implement a loss function…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Tony Tohme , Kevin Vanslette , Kamal Youcef-Toumi

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Antonio Loquercio , Mattia Segù , Davide Scaramuzza

This research leverages Conformal Prediction (CP) in the form of Conformal Predictive Systems (CPS) to accurately estimate uncertainty in a suite of machine learning (ML)-based radio metric models [1] as well as in a 2-D map-based ML path…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Alexis Bose , Jonathan Ethier , Ryan G. Dempsey , Yifeng Qiu

Deep learning methods for unsupervised registration often rely on objectives that assume a uniform noise level across the spatial domain (e.g. mean-squared error loss), but noise distributions are often heteroscedastic and input-dependent…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-19 Xiaoran Zhang , Daniel H. Pak , Shawn S. Ahn , Xiaoxiao Li , Chenyu You , Lawrence H. Staib , Albert J. Sinusas , Alex Wong , James S. Duncan

Accurate quantification of uncertainty in neural network predictions remains a central challenge for scientific applications involving high-dimensional, correlated data. While existing methods capture either aleatoric or epistemic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Harrison J. Goldwyn , Mitchell Krock , Johann Rudi , Daniel Getter , Julie Bessac

Reliable uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks is very crucial in safety-critical applications such as automated driving for trustworthy and informed decision-making. Assessing the quality of uncertainty estimates is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-12-12 Neslihan Kose , Ranganath Krishnan , Akash Dhamasia , Omesh Tickoo , Michael Paulitsch

A simple approach to obtaining uncertainty-aware neural networks for regression is to do Bayesian linear regression (BLR) on the representation from the last hidden layer. Recent work [Riquelme et al., 2018, Azizzadenesheli et al., 2018]…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-17 John Moberg , Lennart Svensson , Juliano Pinto , Henk Wymeersch

It is critical yet challenging for deep learning models to properly characterize uncertainty that is pervasive in real-world environments. Although a lot of efforts have been made, such as heteroscedastic neural networks (HNNs), little work…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-30 Peng Cui , Zhijie Deng , Wenbo Hu , Jun Zhu

This paper investigates the use of probabilistic neural networks (PNNs) to model aleatoric uncertainty, which refers to the inherent variability in the input-output relationships of a system, often characterized by unequal variance or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-22 Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki , Jamal F. Husseini , Scott E. Stapleton

A simple method for adding uncertainty to neural network regression tasks via estimation of a general probability distribution is described. The methodology supports estimation of heteroscedastic, asymmetric uncertainties by a simple…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-09-16 Elizabeth A. Barnes , Randal J. Barnes , Nicolas Gordillo

Path loss modeling is a widely used technique for estimating point-to-point losses along a communications link from transmitter (Tx) to receiver (Rx). Accurate path loss predictions can optimize use of the radio frequency spectrum and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Ryan G. Dempsey , Jonathan Ethier , Halim Yanikomeroglu

We suggest a general approach to quantification of different forms of aleatoric uncertainty in regression tasks performed by artificial neural networks. It is based on the simultaneous training of two neural networks with a joint loss…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-05 Pavel Gurevich , Hannes Stuke

Although various linear log-distance path loss models have been developed, advanced models are requiring to more accurately and flexibly represent the path loss for complex environments such as the urban area. This letter proposes an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-05 Chanshin Park , Daniel K. Tettey , Han-Shin Jo

In many practical applications, regression models are employed to uncover relationships between predictors and a response variable, yet the common assumption of constant error variance is frequently violated. This issue is further…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-05 Masanari Kimura

Multi-task neural network architectures provide a mechanism that jointly integrates information from distinct sources. It is ideal in the context of MR-only radiotherapy planning as it can jointly regress a synthetic CT (synCT) scan and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-08-23 Felix J. S. Bragman , Ryutaro Tanno , Zach Eaton-Rosen , Wenqi Li , David J. Hawkes , Sebastien Ourselin , Daniel C. Alexander , Jamie R. McClelland , M. Jorge Cardoso
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