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We consider the problem of estimating rare event probabilities, focusing on systems whose evolution is governed by differential equations with uncertain input parameters. If the system dynamics is expensive to compute, standard sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-05 Siddhant Wahal , George Biros

In recent years, the shortcomings of Bayesian posteriors as inferential devices have received increased attention. A popular strategy for fixing them has been to instead target a Gibbs measure based on losses that connect a parameter of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-24 David T. Frazier , Jeremias Knoblauch , Jack Jewson , Christopher Drovandi

This paper proposes a novel Bayesian framework for solving Poisson inverse problems by devising a Monte Carlo sampling algorithm which accounts for the underlying non-Euclidean geometry. To address the challenges posed by the Poisson…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-18 Elhadji Cisse Faye , Mame Diarra Fall , Nicolas Dobigeon , Eric Barat

Recent years have seen a rise in the application of machine learning techniques to aid the simulation of hard-to-sample systems that cannot be studied using traditional methods. Despite the introduction of many different architectures and…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-10-09 Luca Maria Del Bono , Federico Ricci-Tersenghi , Francesco Zamponi

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is a prominent Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, which employs symplectic integrators to sample from high dimensional target distributions in many applications, such as statistical mechanics, Bayesian statistics…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-02-13 Geoffrey McGregor , Andy T. S. Wan

By decomposing the important sampled imaginary time Schr\"odinger evolution operator to fourth order with positive coefficients, we derived a number of distinct fourth order Diffusion Monte Carlo algorithms. These sophisticated algorithms…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2009-11-06 Harald A. Forbert , Siu A. Chin

We propose a new strategy for Monte Carlo (MC) optimization on rugged multidimensional landscapes. The strategy is based on querying the statistical properties of the landscape in order to find the temperature at which the mean first…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-06-04 Denis Tolkunov , Alexandre V. Morozov

Based on the central limit theorem, we discuss the problem of evaluation of the statistical error of Monte Carlo calculations using a time discretized diffusion process. We present a robust and practical method to determine the effective…

Computational Physics · Physics 2017-02-22 François Delyon , Bernard Bernu , Markus Holzmann

Monte Carlo simulations of diffusion processes often introduce bias in the final result, due to time discretization. Using an auxiliary Poisson process, it is possible to run simulations which are unbiased. In this article, we propose such…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-05-09 Louis Paulot

For the description of thermally activated dynamics in systems of classical magnetic moments numerical methods are desirable. We consider a simple model for isolated magnetic particles in a uniform field with an oblique angle to the easy…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 U. Nowak , R. W. Chantrell , E. C. Kennedy

Sampling from multimodal distributions is a central challenge in Bayesian inference and machine learning. In light of hardness results for sampling -- classical MCMC methods, even with tempering, can suffer from exponential mixing times --…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-23 Holden Lee , Matheau Santana-Gijzen

Parallel tempering Monte Carlo has proven to be an efficient method in optimization and sampling applications. Having an optimized temperature set enhances the efficiency of the algorithm through more-frequent replica visits to the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-11-11 Ignacio Rozada , Maliheh Aramon , Jonathan Machta , Helmut G. Katzgraber

We develop a biased Monte Carlo algorithm to measure probabilities of rare events in cluster-cluster aggregation for arbitrary collision kernels. Given a trajectory with a fixed number of collisions, the algorithm modifies both the waiting…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-05-24 Rahul Dandekar , R. Rajesh , V. Subashri , Oleg Zaboronski

The Diffusion Monte Carlo method is devoted to the computation of electronic ground-state energies of molecules. In this paper, we focus on implementations of this method which consist in exploring the configuration space with a {\bf fixed}…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Tony Lelievre , Mohamed El Makrini , Benjamin Jourdain

The study of the response of magnetic nanoparticles (MNP) assemblies to an external alternating magnetic field is of great interest for applications such as hyperthermia. The key quantity here is the complex susceptibility and its behavior…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-09-03 A. Morjane , J. -G. Malherbe , J. -J. Alonso , F. Vernay , V. Russier

We show how to extend a recently proposed multi-level Monte Carlo approach to the continuous time Markov chain setting, thereby greatly lowering the computational complexity needed to compute expected values of functions of the state of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-23 David F. Anderson , Desmond J. Higham

It is a well-known rule of thumb that approximations of stochastic partial differential equations have essentially twice the order of weak convergence compared to the corresponding order of strong convergence. This is already known for many…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-28 Annika Lang

Monte Carlo simulations are performed for the S = 1/2 XY and ferro- and antiferromagnetic Heisenberg model in two dimensions using the loop algorithm. Thermodynamic properties of all these models are investigated in wide temperature range.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-02-07 A. K. Murtazaev , M. A. Magomedov

Based on a new coupling approach, we prove that the transition step of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm is contractive w.r.t. a carefully designed Kantorovich (L1 Wasserstein) distance. The lower bound for the contraction rate is…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-30 Nawaf Bou-Rabee , Andreas Eberle , Raphael Zimmer

This paper derives two new optimization-driven Monte Carlo algorithms inspired from variable splitting and data augmentation. In particular, the formulation of one of the proposed approaches is closely related to the alternating direction…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-27 Maxime Vono , Nicolas Dobigeon , Pierre Chainais
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