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Latent autoregressive models are useful time series models for the analysis of infectious disease data. Evaluation of the likelihood function of latent autoregressive models is intractable and its approximation through simulation-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-23 Xanthi Pedeli , Cristiano Varin

In this paper we investigate the flexibility of matrix distributions for the modeling of mortality. Starting from a simple Gompertz law, we show how the introduction of matrix-valued parameters via inhomogeneous phase-type distributions can…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-03 Hansjoerg Albrecher , Martin Bladt , Mogens Bladt , Jorge Yslas

We present a new backfitting algorithm estimating the complex structured non-parametric survival model of Scheike (2001) without having to use smoothing. The considered model is a non-parametric survival model with two time-scales that are…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-03 Munir Hiabu , Jens P. Nielsen , Thomas H. Scheike

Simulation models of complex dynamics in the natural and social sciences commonly lack a tractable likelihood function, rendering traditional likelihood-based statistical inference impossible. Recent advances in machine learning have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-24 Joel Dyer , Patrick Cannon , Sebastian M Schmon

In this paper we detail the reformulation and rewrite of core functions in the spBayes R package. These efforts have focused on improving computational efficiency, flexibility, and usability for point-referenced data models. Attention is…

Computation · Statistics 2013-10-31 Andrew O. Finley , Sudipto Banerjee , Alan E. Gelfand

Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. We…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-29 Dennis M. Feehan

In clinical or epidemiological follow-up studies, methods based on time scale indicators such as the restricted mean survival time (RMST) have been developed to some extent. Compared with traditional hazard rate indicator system methods,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-26 Chengfeng Zhang , Hongji Wu , Baoyi Huang , Hao Yuan , Yawen Hou , Zheng Chen

Paradoxically, while the assumptions of second-order stationarity and isotropy appear outdated in light of modern spatial data, they remain remarkably robust in practice, as nonstationary methods often provide marginal improvements in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-07 Federico Blasi , Reinhard Furrer

In the field of cardio-thoracic surgery, valve function is monitored over time after surgery. The motivation for our research comes from a study which includes patients who received a human tissue valve in the aortic position. These…

Community detection for time series without prior knowledge poses an open challenge within complex networks theory. Traditional approaches begin by assessing time series correlations and maximizing modularity under diverse null models.…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-11-13 Marco Gregnanin , Johannes De Smedt , Giorgio Gnecco , Maurizio Parton

Predicting patient survival probabilities based on observed covariates is an important assessment in clinical practice. These patient-specific covariates are often measured over multiple follow-up appointments. It is then of interest to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-11 Annabel L. Davies , Anthony C. C. Coolen , Tobias Galla

Surrogate modeling and active subspaces have emerged as powerful paradigms in computational science and engineering. Porting such techniques to computational models in the social sciences brings into sharp relief their limitations in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-19 Nathan Wycoff

Spatial areal models encounter the well-known and challenging problem of spatial confounding. This issue makes it arduous to distinguish between the impacts of observed covariates and spatial random effects. Despite previous research and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-08 A. Urdangarin , T. Goicoa , T. Kneib , M. D. Ugarte

As cancer patient survival improves, late effects from treatment are becoming the next clinical challenge. Chemotherapy and radiotherapy, for example, potentially increase the risk of both morbidity and mortality from second malignancies…

In this paper, we focus on the model specification problem in multivariate spatial econometric models when a candidate set for the spatial weights matrix is available. We propose a model selection method for the multivariate spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Xin Miao , Fang Fang , Xuening Zhu , Hansheng Wang

The spatial scan statistic is widely used to detect disease clusters in epidemiological surveillance. Since the seminal work by~\cite{kulldorff1997}, numerous extensions have emerged, including methods for defining scan regions, detecting…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-11 Takayuki Kawashima , Daisuke Yoneoka , Yuta Tanoue , Akifumi Eguchi , Shuhei Nomura

Explosive growth in spatio-temporal data and its wide range of applications have attracted increasing interests of researchers in the statistical and machine learning fields. The spatio-temporal regression problem is of paramount importance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-15 Aniruddha Rajendra Rao , Qiyao Wang , Haiyan Wang , Hamed Khorasgani , Chetan Gupta

We address the problem of survival regression modelling with multivariate responses and nonlinear covariate effects. Our model extends the proportional hazards model by introducing several weakly-parametric elements: the marginal baseline…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-16 Na Lei , Mark A. Wolters , Wenqing He

In this paper, a new approach to bivariate modeling of autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models is proposed. Specifically, we consider the joint modeling of durations and the number of transactions made during the spell. The…

Applications · Statistics 2023-06-27 Helton Saulo , Suvra Pal , Roberto Vila

Simulation models often lack tractable likelihood functions, making likelihood-free inference methods indispensable. Approximate Bayesian computation generates likelihood-free posterior samples by comparing simulated and observed data…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-02 Joel Dyer , Patrick Cannon , Sebastian M Schmon