Related papers: Common $p$-Belief with Plausibility Measures: Exte…
This article explains, and discusses the merits of, three approaches for analyzing the certainty with which statistical results can be extrapolated beyond the data gathered. Sometimes it may be possible to use more than one of these…
Statistical learning using imprecise probabilities is gaining more attention because it presents an alternative strategy for reducing irreplicable findings by freeing the user from the task of making up unwarranted high-resolution…
Collapsibility deals with the conditions under which a conditional (on a covariate W) measure of association between two random variables X and Y equals the marginal measure of association, under the assumption of homogeneity over the…
The aim of this article is to make a contribution to the Bayesian procedure of testing precise hypotheses for parametric models. For this purpose, we define the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure that allows one to evaluate the suitability of a…
In this study, we explore the relation between generalised entropies and the extended uncertainty principle (EUP) models. Starting from the higher-order extended uncertainty principle (HOEUP), we obtain the modified entropy-area relation.…
Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…
Bounded confidence opinion dynamics model the propagation of information in social networks. However in the existing literature, opinions are only viewed as abstract quantities without semantics rather than as part of a decision-making…
This paper is concerned with the probability of consensus in a multivariate, spatially explicit version of the Hegselmann-Krause model for the dynamics of opinions. Individuals are located on the vertices of a finite connected graph…
We construct a probabilistic coherence measure for information sets which determines a partial coherence ordering. This measure is applied in constructing a criterion for expanding our beliefs in the face of new information. A number of…
Plausibility models are Kripke models that agents use to reason about knowledge and belief, both of themselves and of each other. Such models are used to interpret the notions of conditional belief, degrees of belief, and safe belief. The…
In the consensus model of Sznajd, opinions are integers and a randomly chosen pair of neighbouring agents with the same opinion forces all their neighbours to share that opinion. We propose a simple extension of the model to continuous…
Meta-analysis combines results from multiple studies aiming to increase power in finding their common effect. It would typically reject the null hypothesis of no effect if any one of the studies shows strong significance. The partial…
In a strand of the literature, it is assumed that the common prior has full support; that is, every type of every player is assigned positive probability. Morris (1991,1994) established an epistemological-behavioral duality characterisation…
We develop a result on expected posteriors for Bayesians with heterogenous priors, dubbed information validates the prior (IVP). Under familiar ordering requirements, Anne expects a (Blackwell) more informative experiment to bring Bob's…
It has been shown that one can accommodate data (Bayes) and constraints (MaxEnt) in one method, the method of Maximum (relative) Entropy (ME) (Giffin 2007). In this paper we show a complex agent based example of inference with two different…
Peer prediction refers to a collection of mechanisms for eliciting information from human agents when direct verification of the obtained information is unavailable. They are designed to have a game-theoretic equilibrium where everyone…
This paper studies preference aggregation under ambiguity when agents have incomplete preference relations due to imprecise beliefs. We introduce the "dual" of the Pareto principle, which respects unanimity among individuals, including…
Scientific claims gain credibility by replicability, especially if replication under different circumstances and varying designs yields equivalent results. Aggregating results over multiple studies is, however, not straightforward, and when…
In fields that are mainly nonexperimental, such as economics and finance, it is inescapable to compute test statistics and confidence regions that are not probabilistically independent from previously examined data. The Bayesian and…
We explore the possibilities of enforcing and preventing consensus in continuous opinion dynamics that result from modifications in the communication rules. We refer to the model of Weisbuch and Deffuant, where $n$ agents adjust their…