Related papers: Data-driven informative priors for Bayesian infere…
Many inferential tasks involve fitting models to observed data and predicting outcomes at new covariate values, requiring interpolation or extrapolation. Conventional methods select a single best-fitting model, discarding fits that were…
Sparse variational Gaussian processes (GPs) construct tractable posterior approximations to GP models. At the core of these methods is the assumption that the true posterior distribution over training function values ${\bf f}$ and inducing…
Given a set of moment restrictions (MRs) that overidentify a parameter $\theta$, we investigate a semiparametric Bayesian approach for inference on $\theta$ that does not restrict the data distribution $F$ apart from the MRs. As main…
We present a Bayesian data fusion method to approximate a posterior distribution from an ensemble of particle estimates that only have access to subsets of the data. Our approach relies on approximate probabilistic inference of model…
Inference of the marginal probability distribution is defined as the calculation of the probability of a subset of the variables and is relevant for handling missing data and hidden variables. While inference of the marginal probability…
Hierarchical models are versatile tools for joint modeling of data sets arising from different, but related, sources. Fully Bayesian inference may, however, become computationally prohibitive if the source-specific data models are complex,…
Computing posterior distributions in large-scale Bayesian linear inverse problems is challenging due to the high dimensionality of the parameter space. In this work, we develop a data-informed framework that shifts the computational focus…
We discuss a Bayesian methodology for the solution of the inverse problem underlying the determination of parton distribution functions (PDFs). In our approach, Gaussian Processes (GPs) are used to model the PDF prior, while Bayes theorem…
Automatic forecasting is the task of receiving a time series and returning a forecast for the next time steps without any human intervention. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for modeling time series, but so far there are no…
An important feature of Bayesian statistics is the opportunity to do sequential inference: the posterior distribution obtained after seeing a dataset can be used as prior for a second inference. However, when Monte Carlo sampling methods…
We discuss Bayesian inference for parameters selected using the data. First, we provide a critical analysis of the existing positions in the literature regarding the correct Bayesian approach under selection. Second, we propose two types of…
Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets), a class of generative models over discrete and structured sample spaces, have been previously applied to the problem of inferring the marginal posterior distribution over the directed acyclic graph…
In Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI), the learning rate and hyperparameters of the loss must be estimated. These inference-hyperparameters can't be estimated jointly with the other parameters, from the data, by giving them a prior.…
The Poisson distribution arises naturally when dealing with data involving counts, and it has found many applications in inverse problems and imaging. In this work, we develop an approximate Bayesian inference technique based on expectation…
Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. These data commonly exhibit complex distributional features such as zero-inflation, over-/under-dispersion, boundedness, and heaping, which render many parametric models…
We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…
In this paper we adopt the familiar sparse, high-dimensional linear regression model and focus on the important but often overlooked task of prediction. In particular, we consider a new empirical Bayes framework that incorporates data in…
The Gaussian process (GP) is a nonparametric prior distribution over functions indexed by time, space, or other high-dimensional index set. The GP is a flexible model yet its limitation is given by its very nature: it can only model…
Kernel methods are one of the mainstays of machine learning, but the problem of kernel learning remains challenging, with only a few heuristics and very little theory. This is of particular importance in methods based on estimation of…
In this paper, we explore the application of Gaussian Processes (GPs) for predicting mean-reverting time series with an underlying structure, using relatively unexplored functional and augmented data structures. While many conventional…