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We advance the proxy variable approach to production function estimation. We show that the invertibility assumption at its heart is testable. We characterize what goes wrong if invertibility fails and what can still be done. We show that…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-28 Ulrich Doraszelski , Lixiong Li

Production function estimates underpin the measurement of firm-level markups, allocative efficiency, and the productivity effects of policy interventions. Since Olley and Pakes (1996), every major proxy variable estimator has identified the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-08 Rentaro Utamaru

Standard methods for estimating production functions in the Olley and Pakes (1996) tradition require assumptions on input choices. We introduce a new method that exploits (increasingly available) data on a firm's expectations of its future…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-07-12 Agnes Norris Keiller , Aureo de Paula , John Van Reenen

A generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator is unreliable for a large number of moment conditions, that is, it is comparable, or larger than the sample size. While classical GMM literature proposes several provisions to this problem,…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-11 Masahiro Tanaka

Productions functions map the inputs of a firm or a productive system onto its outputs. This article expounds generalizations of the production function that include state variables, organizational structures and increasing returns to…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 Guido Fioretti

Weak identification arises in many statistical problems when key variables exhibit weak correlations-for example, when instrumental variables correlate weakly with treatment, or when proxy variables correlate weakly with unmeasured…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-12 Rui Wang , Kwun Chuen Gary Chan , Ting Ye

In predictive modeling with simulation or machine learning, it is critical to accurately assess the quality of estimated values through output analysis. In recent decades output analysis has become enriched with methods that quantify the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-27 Kimia Vahdat , Sara Shashaani

Production functions are potentially misspecified when revenue is used as a proxy for output. I formalize and strengthen this common knowledge by showing that neither the production function nor Hicks-neutral productivity can be identified…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-10 David Van Dijcke

For many inference problems in statistics and econometrics, the unknown parameter is identified by a set of moment conditions. A generic method of solving moment conditions is the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). However, classical GMM…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-18 Dhruv Rohatgi , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Commonly used methods of production function and markup estimation assume that a firm's output quantity can be observed as data, but typical datasets contain only revenue, not output quantity. We examine the nonparametric identification of…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-11-03 Hiroyuki Kasahara , Yoichi Sugita

The control function approach allows the researcher to identify various causal effects of interest. While powerful, it requires a strong invertibility assumption in the selection process, which limits its applicability. This paper expands…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-28 Sukjin Han , Hiroaki Kaido

Many multivariate statistical analysis methods and their corresponding probabilistic counterparts have been adopted to develop process monitoring models in recent decades. However, the insightful connections between them have rarely been…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-28 Wanke Yu , Min Wu , Biao Huang , Chengda Lu

Gaussian Process (GP) regression is a flexible non-parametric approach to approximate complex models. In many cases, these models correspond to processes with bounded physical properties. Standard GP regression typically results in a proxy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-10 Andrew Pensoneault , Xiu Yang , Xueyu Zhu

The design and structure of generalized predictive control (GPC) are not simple and intuitive. The performance analysis does not deeply analyze how the controller parameters affect the system characteristics and the relationship between the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-11-07 Feilong Zhang

We propose a nonparametric method for estimating the conditional quantile function that admits a generalized additive specification with an unknown link function. This model nests single-index, additive, and multiplicative quantile…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-07 Yebin Cheng , Jan G. De Gooijer

Causal effect estimation relies on separating the variation in the outcome into parts due to the treatment and due to the confounders. To achieve this separation, practitioners often use external sources of randomness that only influence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-03 Aahlad Manas Puli , Rajesh Ranganath

Gaussian process regression is a frequently used statistical method for flexible yet fully probabilistic non-linear regression modeling. A common obstacle is its computational complexity which scales poorly with the number of observations.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Adam Gorm Hoffmann , Claus Thorn Ekstrøm , Andreas Kryger Jensen

In this paper, we are interested in nonparametric kernel estimation of a generalized regression function, including conditional cumulative distribution and conditional quantile functions, based on an incomplete sample $(X_t, Y_t,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-19 Mohamed Chaouch , Naâmane Laïb

Baseline estimation is critical to Demand Response (DR) settlement in electricity markets, yet existing machine learning methods remain limited in predictive performance, while methodologies from causal inference and counterfactual…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Jonas Sievers , Mardavij Roozbehani

Important problems in causal inference, economics, and, more generally, robust machine learning can be expressed as conditional moment restrictions, but estimation becomes challenging as it requires solving a continuum of unconditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-19 Heiner Kremer , Jia-Jie Zhu , Krikamol Muandet , Bernhard Schölkopf
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