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This paper proposes Bayesian Adaptive Trials (BAT) as both an efficient method to conduct trials and a unifying framework for evaluation social policy interventions, addressing limitations inherent in traditional methods such as Randomized…

Test-Time Adaptation aims to adapt source domain model to testing data at inference stage with success demonstrated in adapting to unseen corruptions. However, these attempts may fail under more challenging real-world scenarios. Existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-27 Yongyi Su , Xun Xu , Kui Jia

Online learning via Bayes' theorem allows new data to be continuously integrated into an agent's current beliefs. However, a naive application of Bayesian methods in non stationary environments leads to slow adaptation and results in state…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-09 Josue Nassar , Jennifer Brennan , Ben Evans , Kendall Lowrey

Adversarial attack perturbs an image with an imperceptible noise, leading to incorrect model prediction. Recently, a few works showed inherent bias associated with such attack (robustness bias), where certain subgroups in a dataset (e.g.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-06 Gaurav Kumar Nayak , Ruchit Rawal , Rohit Lal , Himanshu Patil , Anirban Chakraborty

Many studies in biomedical and health sciences involve small sample sizes due to logistic or financial constraints. Often, identifying weak (but scientifically interesting) associations between a set of predictors and a response…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-05 Hao Henry Zhou , Yilin Zhang , Vamsi K. Ithapu , Sterling C. Johnson , Grace Wahba , Vikas Singh

The performance of algorithmic decision rules is largely dependent on the quality of training datasets available to them. Biases in these datasets can raise economic and ethical concerns due to the resulting algorithms' disparate treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-14 Yifan Yang , Yang Liu , Parinaz Naghizadeh

Randomized experiments have long been the gold standard for scientists seeking to learn about cause and effect. When randomized experiments are infeasible, scientists often resort to observational studies, which are widely available and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Bohan Wu , Sebastian Salazar , Donald P. Green , David M. Blei

In this paper, we consider a new low-quality label learning problem: learning time series detection models from temporally imprecise labels. In this problem, the data consist of a set of input time series, and supervision is provided by a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-04-14 Roy J. Adams , Benjamin M. Marlin

The estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects in the potential outcome setting is biased when there exists model misspecification or unobserved confounding. As these biases are unobservable, what model to use when remains a critical…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-09 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Kosaku Takanashi , Kenichiro McAlinn , Edoardo M. Airoldi

Evaluating the causal effect of recommendations is an important objective because the causal effect on user interactions can directly leads to an increase in sales and user engagement. To select an optimal recommendation model, it is common…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-16 Masahiro Sato

In many randomized experiments, the treatment effect of the long-term metric (i.e. the primary outcome of interest) is often difficult or infeasible to measure. Such long-term metrics are often slow to react to changes and sufficiently…

Real-world experiments involve batched & delayed feedback, non-stationarity, multiple objectives & constraints, and (often some) personalization. Tailoring adaptive methods to address these challenges on a per-problem basis is infeasible,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-11 Ethan Che , Daniel R. Jiang , Hongseok Namkoong , Jimmy Wang

In this paper, we study the pooled data problem of identifying the labels associated with a large collection of items, based on a sequence of pooled tests revealing the counts of each label within the pool. In the noiseless setting, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-19 Jonathan Scarlett , Volkan Cevher

We consider the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects with arbitrary machine learning methods in the presence of unobserved confounders with the aid of a valid instrument. Such settings arise in A/B tests with an intent-to-treat…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-06-07 Vasilis Syrgkanis , Victor Lei , Miruna Oprescu , Maggie Hei , Keith Battocchi , Greg Lewis

Nonresponse in panel studies can lead to a substantial loss in data quality due to its potential to introduce bias and distort survey estimates. Recent work investigates the usage of machine learning to predict nonresponse in advance, such…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-05 Christoph Kern , Bernd Weiss , Jan-Philipp Kolb

The use of external data in clinical trials offers numerous advantages, such as reducing the number of patients, increasing study power, and shortening trial durations. In Bayesian inference, information in external data can be transferred…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Xuetao Lu , J. Jack Lee

This paper studies the estimation and inference of treatment effects in panel data settings when treatments change dynamically over time. We propose a balancing method that allows for (i) treatments to be assigned dynamically over time…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-24 Davide Viviano , Jelena Bradic

When we use the normal mixture model, the optimal number of the components describing the data should be determined. Testing homogeneity is good for this purpose; however, to construct its theory is challenging, since the test statistic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-24 Natsuki Kariya , Sumio Watanabe

In model checking for regressions, nonparametric estimation-based tests usually have tractable limiting null distributions and are sensitive to oscillating alternative models, but suffer from the curse of dimensionality. In contrast,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-12 Lingzhu Li , Xuehu Zhu , Lixing Zhu

Treatment effect heterogeneity refers to the systematic variation in treatment effects across subgroups. There is an increasing need for clinical trials that aim to investigate treatment effect heterogeneity and estimate subgroup-specific…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-06 Xianglin Zhao , Shirin Golchi , Jean-Philippe Gouin , Kaberi Dasgupta