Related papers: A statistical framework for comparing epidemic for…
Consider stochastic models for the spread of an infection in a structured community, where this structured community is itself described by a random network model. Some common network models and transmission models are defined and large…
We consider conducting inference on the output of the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) [Breiman et al., 1984] algorithm. A naive approach to inference that does not account for the fact that the tree was estimated from the data…
Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to 'mine' variables of interest…
Estimating phylogenetic trees is an important problem in evolutionary biology, environmental policy and medicine. Although trees are estimated, their uncertainties are discarded by mathematicians working in tree space. Here we explicitly…
The assumption of positivity in causal inference (also known as common support and co-variate overlap) is necessary to obtain valid causal estimates. Therefore, confirming it holds in a given dataset is an important first step of any causal…
Variations in complex traits are influenced by multiple genetic variants, environmental risk factors, and their interactions. Though substantial progress has been made in identifying single genetic variants associated with complex traits,…
This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult…
Large-scale outbreaks of epidemics, misinformation, or other harmful contagions pose significant threats to human society, yet the fundamental question of whether an emerging outbreak will escalate into a major epidemic or naturally die out…
The dynamics of many epidemic compartmental models for infectious diseases that spread in a single host population present a second-order phase transition. This transition occurs as a function of the infectivity parameter, from the absence…
Although regression trees were originally designed for large datasets, they can profitably be used on small datasets as well, including those from replicated or unreplicated complete factorial experiments. We show that in the latter…
Pearson's Chi-squared test, though widely used for detecting association between categorical variables, exhibits low statistical power in large sparse contingency tables. To address this limitation, two novel permutation tests have been…
Estimations and evaluations of the main patterns of time series data in groups benefit large amounts of applications in various fields. Different from the classical auto-correlation time series analysis and the modern neural networks…
The death toll for Covid-19 may be reduced by dividing the population into two classes, the vulnerable and the fit, with different lockdown regimes. Instead of one reproduction number there now are four parameters. These make it possible to…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
Our main goal in this paper is to quantitatively compare the performance of classical methods to XGBoost and convolutional neural networks in a parameter estimation problem for epidemic spread. As we use flexible two-layer random graphs as…
Estimation of individual treatment effect in observational data is complicated due to the challenges of confounding and selection bias. A useful inferential framework to address this is the counterfactual (potential outcomes) model which…
The accurate estimation of time-varying transmission rates is fundamental for understanding infectious disease dynamics and implementing effective public health interventions. To this end, we propose an improved inverse method for…
Earth's forests play an important role in the fight against climate change, and are in turn negatively affected by it. Effective monitoring of different tree species is essential to understanding and improving the health and biodiversity of…
Immune events such as infection, vaccination, and a combination of the two result in distinct time-dependent antibody responses in affected individuals. These responses and event prevalences combine non-trivially to govern antibody levels…
Between pandemics, the influenza virus exhibits periods of incremental evolution via a process known as antigenic drift. This process gives rise to a sequence of strains of the pathogen that are continuously replaced by newer strains,…