Related papers: Extrapolating into the Extremes with Minimum Dista…
A geometric representation for multivariate extremes, based on the shapes of scaled sample clouds in light-tailed margins and their so-called limit sets, has recently been shown to connect several existing extremal dependence concepts.…
Extreme weather events are widely studied in fields such as agriculture, ecology, and meteorology. The spatio-temporal co-occurrence of extreme events can strengthen or weaken under changing climate conditions. In this paper, we propose a…
The analysis of spatial extremes requires the joint modeling of a spatial process at a large number of stations and max-stable processes have been developed as a class of stochastic processes suitable for studying spatial extremes. Spatial…
We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…
A successful model for high-dimensional spatial extremes should, in principle, be able to describe both weakening extremal dependence at increasing levels and changes in the type of extremal dependence class as a function of the distance…
Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit…
We propose an $\ell_1$-penalized estimator for high-dimensional models of Expected Shortfall (ES). The estimator is obtained as the solution to a least-squares problem for an auxiliary dependent variable, which is defined as a…
Most of the existing classification methods are aimed at minimization of empirical risk (through some simple point-based error measured with loss function) with added regularization. We propose to approach this problem in a more information…
This paper addresses important weaknesses in current methodology for the estimation of multivariate extreme event distributions. The estimation of the residual dependence index $\eta \in (0,1]$ is notoriously problematic. We introduce a…
Estimation of extreme quantile regions, spaces in which future extreme events can occur with a given low probability, even beyond the range of the observed data, is an important task in the analysis of extremes. Existing methods to estimate…
Capturing the dependence structure of multivariate extreme events is a major concern in many fields involving the management of risks stemming from multiple sources, e.g. portfolio monitoring, insurance, environmental risk management and…
We propose a vector generalized additive modeling framework for taking into account the effect of covariates on angular density functions in a multivariate extreme value context. The proposed methods are tailored for settings where the…
We establish a statistical learning theoretical framework aimed at extrapolation, or out-of-domain generalization, on the unobserved tails of covariates in continuous regression problems. Our strategy involves performing statistical…
This paper studies the remote state estimation problem of linear time-invariant systems with stochastic event-triggered sensor schedules in the presence of packet drops between the sensor and the estimator. It is shown that the system state…
We present the first minimax risk bounds for estimators of the spectral measure in multivariate linear factor models, where observations are linear combinations of regularly varying latent factors. Non-asymptotic convergence rates are…
Expectile regression is a nice tool for investigating conditional distributions beyond the conditional mean. It is well-known that expectiles can be described with the help of the asymmetric least square loss function, and this link makes…
Flood quantile estimation is of great importance for many engineering studies and policy decisions. However, practitioners must often deal with small data available. Thus, the information must be used optimally. In the last decades, to…
Extremes play a special role in Anomaly Detection. Beyond inference and simulation purposes, probabilistic tools borrowed from Extreme Value Theory (EVT), such as the angular measure, can also be used to design novel statistical learning…
The present article is devoted to the semi-parametric estimation of multivariate expectiles for extreme levels. The considered multivariate risk measures also include the possible conditioning with respect to a functional covariate,…
This work has been motivated by the challenge of the 2017 conference on Extreme-Value Analysis (EVA2017), with the goal of predicting daily precipitation quantiles at the $99.8\%$ level for each month at observed and unobserved locations.…