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We provide a detailed importance sampling analysis for variance reduction in stochastic volatility models. The optimal change of measure is obtained using a variety of results from large and moderate deviations: small-time, large-time,…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2021-11-02 Marc Geha , Antoine Jacquier , Zan Zuric

We explore efficient estimation of statistical quantities, particularly rare event probabilities, for stochastic reaction networks. Consequently, we propose an importance sampling (IS) approach to improve the Monte Carlo (MC) estimator…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-03-12 Chiheb Ben Hammouda , Nadhir Ben Rached , Raúl Tempone , Sophia Wiechert

Importance Sampling (IS) is a widely used variance reduction technique for enhancing the efficiency of Monte Carlo methods, particularly in rare-event simulation and related applications. Despite its effectiveness, the performance of IS is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Liviu Aolaritei , Bart P. G. Van Parys , Henry Lam , Michael I. Jordan

We develop generic and efficient importance sampling estimators for Monte Carlo evaluation of prices of single- and multi-asset European and path-dependent options in asset price models driven by L\'evy processes, extending earlier works…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-08-17 Adrien Genin , Peter Tankov

The lifted Heston model is a stochastic volatility model emerging as a Markovian lift of the rough Heston model and the class of rough volatility processes. The model encodes the path dependency of volatility on a set of N square-root state…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-13 Nicola F. Zaugg , Lech A. Grzelak

In this paper, we study stochastic volatility models in regimes where the maturity is small, but large compared to the mean-reversion time of the stochastic volatility factor. The problem falls in the class of averaging/homogenization…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2012-08-22 Jin Feng , Jean-Pierre Fouque , Rohini Kumar

Importance sampling (IS) is a widely used simulation method for estimating rare event probabilities. In IS, the relative variance of an estimator is the most common measure of estimator accuracy, and the focus of existing literature is on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-05 Julie Choi , Peter Glynn

Importance sampling (IS) is a Monte Carlo technique that relies on weighted samples, simulated from a proposal distribution, to estimate intractable integrals. The quality of the estimators improves with the number of samples. However, for…

Computation · Statistics 2022-07-18 Medha Agarwal , Dootika Vats , Víctor Elvira

Importance sampling (IS) is a powerful Monte Carlo (MC) methodology for approximating integrals, for instance in the context of Bayesian inference. In IS, the samples are simulated from the so-called proposal distribution, and the choice of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-29 Ali Mousavi , Reza Monsefi , Víctor Elvira

We derive the short-maturity asymptotics for European and VIX option prices in local-stochastic volatility models where the volatility follows a continuous-path Markov process. Both out-of-the-money (OTM) and at-the-money (ATM) asymptotics…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-25 Dan Pirjol , Xiaoyu Wang , Lingjiong Zhu

Importance sampling (IS) is a technique that enables statistical estimation of output performance at multiple input distributions from a single nominal input distribution. IS is commonly used in Monte Carlo simulation for variance reduction…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-07 Yijuan Liang , Guangxin Jiang , Michael C. Fu

Off-policy policy estimators that use importance sampling (IS) can suffer from high variance in long-horizon domains, and there has been particular excitement over new IS methods that leverage the structure of Markov decision processes. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-09 Yao Liu , Pierre-Luc Bacon , Emma Brunskill

We propose a multi-scale stochastic volatility model in which a fast mean-reverting factor of volatility is built on top of the Heston stochastic volatility model. A singular pertubative expansion is then used to obtain an approximation for…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2012-05-15 Jean-Pierre Fouque , Matthew Lorig

This paper presents an algorithm for a complete and efficient calibration of the Heston stochastic volatility model. We express the calibration as a nonlinear least squares problem. We exploit a suitable representation of the Heston…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-05-27 Yiran Cui , Sebastian del Baño Rollin , Guido Germano

We establish an ordering criterion for the asymptotic variances of two consistent Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimators: an importance sampling (IS) estimator, based on an approximate reversible chain and subsequent IS weighting, and a…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-06 Jordan Franks , Matti Vihola

In this paper we develop the large deviations principle and a rigorous mathematical framework for asymptotically efficient importance sampling schemes for general, fully dependent systems of stochastic differential equations of slow and…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-29 Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

Importance sampling (IS) is an important technique to reduce the estimation variance in Monte Carlo simulations. In many practical problems, however, the use of IS method may result in unbounded variance, and thus fail to provide reliable…

Computation · Statistics 2019-02-26 Tengchao Yu , Linjun Lu , Jinglai Li

This paper deals with the Monte-Carlo methods for evaluating expectations of functionals of solutions to McKean-Vlasov Stochastic Differential Equations (MV-SDE) with drifts of super-linear growth. We assume that the MV-SDE is approximated…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-15 Goncalo dos Reis , Greig Smith , Peter Tankov

The Heston stochastic-local volatility model, consisting of a asset price process and a Cox--Ingersoll--Ross-type variance process, offers a wide range of applications in the financial industry. The pursuit for efficient model evaluation…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-16 Meng cai , Tianze Li

We consider call option prices in diffusion models close to expiry, in an asymptotic regime ("moderately out of the money") that interpolates between the well-studied cases of at-the-money options and out-of-the-money fixed-strike options.…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2016-04-06 Peter Friz , Stefan Gerhold , Arpad Pinter
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