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In many situations, researchers are interested in identifying dynamic effects of an irreversible treatment with a time-invariant binary instrumental variable (IV). For example, in evaluations of dynamic effects of training programs with a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-28 Bruno Ferman , Otávio Tecchio

Instrumental variables (IV) regression is widely used to estimate causal treatment effects in settings where receipt of treatment is not fully random, but there exists an instrument that generates exogenous variation in treatment exposure.…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-08-10 Stephen Coussens , Jann Spiess

We propose an instrumental variable framework for identifying and estimating causal effects of discrete and continuous treatments with binary instruments. The basis of our approach is a local copula representation of the joint distribution…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-17 Victor Chernozhukov , Iván Fernández-Val , Sukjin Han , Kaspar Wüthrich

The estimation of individual treatment effects (ITE) focuses on predicting the outcome changes that result from a change in treatment. A fundamental challenge in observational data is that while we need to infer outcome differences under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Zichuan Lin , Xiaokai Huang , Jiate Liu , Yuxuan Han , Jia Chen , Xiapeng Wu , Deheng Ye

Instrumental variable methods are widely used to address unmeasured confounding, yet much of the existing literature has focused on the binary instrument setting. Extensions to continuous instruments often impose strong parametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Zhenghao Zeng , Alexander W. Levis , JungHo Lee , Edward H. Kennedy , Luke Keele

Estimating causal effects in a target population with unmeasured confounders is challenging, especially when instrumental variables (IVs) are unavailable. However, IVs from auxiliary populations with similar problems can help infer causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-06 Wei Li , Jiapeng Liu , Peng Ding , Zhi Geng

This paper proposes semi-instrumental variables (semi-IVs) as an alternative to instrumental variables (IVs) to identify the causal effect of a binary (or discrete) endogenous treatment. A semi-IV is a less restrictive form of instrument:…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-23 Christophe Bruneel-Zupanc

Instrumental variables are commonly used to estimate effects of a treatment afflicted by unmeasured confounding, and in practice instruments are often continuous (e.g., measures of distance, or treatment preference). However, available…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-05 Edward H. Kennedy , Scott A. Lorch , Dylan S. Small

Instrumental variable (IV) methods allow us the opportunity to address unmeasured confounding in causal inference. However, most IV methods are only applicable to discrete or continuous outcomes with very few IV methods for censored…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-30 Youjin Lee , Edward H. Kennedy , Nandita Mitra

Finding valid instruments is difficult. We propose Validity Set Instrumental Variable (VSIV) estimation, a method for estimating local average treatment effects (LATEs) in heterogeneous causal effect models when the instruments are…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-11 Zhenting Sun , Kaspar Wüthrich

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are used to estimate causal effects in settings with unobserved confounding, where we cannot directly experiment on the treatment variable. Instruments are variables which only affect the outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-26 Elisabeth Ailer , Jason Hartford , Niki Kilbertus

Instrumental variable based estimation of a causal effect has emerged as a standard approach to mitigate confounding bias in the social sciences and epidemiology, where conducting randomized experiments can be too costly or impossible.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Danielle Tsao , Krikamol Muandet , Frederick Eberhardt , Emilija Perković

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are widely used to analyze the simultaneous relationships between multiple time-dependent data. Various statistical inference methods have been studied to overcome the identification problems…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-18 Masato Shimokawa , Kou Fujimori

Contextual sensing and delivery of digital interventions to improve health outcomes have gained significant traction in behavioral and psychiatric studies. Micro-randomized trials (MRTs) are a common experimental design for obtaining…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-01 Jieru Shi , Zhenke Wu , Walter Dempsey

This paper examines the identification power of instrumental variables (IVs) for average treatment effect (ATE) in partially identified models. We decompose the ATE identification gains into components of contributions driven by IV…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-09-07 Lina Zhang , David T. Frazier , D. S. Poskitt , Xueyan Zhao

Standard instrumental variables (IV) methods identify a Local Average Treatment Effect under monotonicity, which rules out defiers. In many empirical environments, however, distinct instruments may induce heterogeneous and even opposing…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-16 Johann Caro-Burnett

Recently, there has been a surge in methodological development for the difference-in-differences (DiD) approach to evaluate causal effects. Standard methods in the literature rely on the parallel trends assumption to identify the average…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-17 Pan Zhao , Yifan Cui

This paper presents an inference method for the local average treatment effect (LATE) in the presence of high-dimensional covariates, regardless of the strength of identification. We propose an orthogonalized Anderson-Rubin test statistic…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-11 Yukun Ma

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-05 Baoluo Sun , Yifan Cui , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used to infer treatment effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In this paper, we study nonparametric inference with an IV under a separable binary treatment choice model, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Chan Park , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen