Related papers: Comparing Labeled Markov Chains: A Cantor-Kantorov…

Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods for estimating integrals are attractive since the resulting estimators typically converge at a faster rate than pseudo-random Monte Carlo. However, they can be difficult to set up on arbitrary posterior…

This review paper, written for the second edition of the Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo, provides an introduction to the study of convergence analysis for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), aimed at researchers new to the field. We…

In this paper we introduce several quantitative methods for the lambda-calculus based on partial metrics, a well-studied variant of standard metric spaces that have been used to metrize non-Hausdorff topologies, like those arising from…

Ridge regularized linear models (RRLMs), such as ridge regression and the SVM, are a popular group of methods that are used in conjunction with coefficient hypothesis testing to discover explanatory variables with a significant multivariate…

We describe CPMC-Lab, a Matlab program for the constrained-path and phaseless auxiliary-field Monte Carlo methods. These methods have allowed applications ranging from the study of strongly correlated models, such as the Hubbard model, to…

Understanding the reliability of large language models (LLMs) has recently garnered significant attention. Given LLMs' propensity to hallucinate, as well as their high sensitivity to prompt design, it is already challenging to predict the…

Bayesian inference for Continuous-Time Markov Chains (CTMCs) on countably infinite spaces is notoriously difficult because evaluating the likelihood exactly is intractable. One way to address this challenge is to first build a non-negative…

A long-standing gap exists between the theoretical analysis of Markov chain Monte Carlo convergence, which is often based on statistical divergences, and the diagnostics used in practice. We introduce the first general convergence…

We consider the problem of testing the identity of a reversible Markov chain against a reference from a single trajectory of observations. Employing the recently introduced notion of a lumping-congruent Markov embedding, we show that, at…

Deep architecture such as hierarchical semi-Markov models is an important class of models for nested sequential data. Current exact inference schemes either cost cubic time in sequence length, or exponential time in model depth. These costs…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful methodology for the approximation of posterior distributions. However, the iterative nature of MCMC does not naturally facilitate its use with modern highly parallel computation on HPC and cloud…

Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (AMCMC) is a class of MCMC algorithms where the proposal distribution changes at every iteration of the chain. In this case it is important to verify that such a Markov Chain indeed has a stationary…

We propose a new method for Monte Carlo solution of non-linear integral equations by combining the Newton-Kantorovich method for solving non-linear equations with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for solving linear equations. The…

Hidden Markov Chains (HMCs) are commonly used mathematical models of probabilistic systems. They are employed in various fields such as speech recognition, signal processing, and biological sequence analysis. We consider the problem of…

This simple note lays out a few observations which are well known in many ways but may not have been said in quite this way before. The basic idea is that when comparing two different Markov chains it is useful to couple them is such a way…

For a given Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm we introduce a distance between two configurations that quantifies the difficulty of transition from one configuration to the other configuration. We argue that the distance takes a universal…

Variable-length Markov chains on finite quivers provide a natural framework for context-dependent stochastic growth under incidence constraints. I study quiver-valued variable-length Markov chains observed through finite boundary windows…

We introduce a Markov chain model of concurrent quantum programs. This model is a quantum generalization of Hart, Sharir and Pnueli's probabilistic concurrent programs. Some characterizations of the reachable space, uniformly repeatedly…

In this paper we present a novel method for estimating the parameters of a parametric diffusion processes. Our approach is based on a closed-form Maximum Likelihood estimator for an approximating Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) of the…

Drawdown risk, an important metric in financial risk management, poses significant computational challenges due to its highly path-dependent nature. This paper proposes a unified framework for computing five important drawdown quantities…