Related papers: Thermodynamics + Natural Selection = Bayesian Infe…
Suppose an initial state is coupled to a continuum of energy states. The population of the initial state is expected to decrease with time, but is the decrease monotonic? The occupation probability of the initial state is the survival…
This paper characterizes the conditions under which the observed beliefs of a group of agents are consistent with Bayesian updating. Beliefs are consistent with Bayesianism if they arise from the application of Bayes' rule given some…
Competition between a complex system's constituents and a corresponding reward mechanism based on it have profound influence on the functioning, stability, and evolution of the system. But determining the dominance hierarchy or ranking…
This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…
Invariants are a set of properties over program attributes that are expected to be true during the execution of a program. Since developing those invariants manually can be costly and challenging, there are a myriad of approaches that…
Updating a probability distribution in the light of new evidence is a very basic operation in Bayesian probability theory. It is also known as state revision or simply as conditioning. This paper recalls how locally updating a joint state…
We derive a generalization of the Second Law of Thermodynamics that uses Bayesian updates to explicitly incorporate the effects of a measurement of a system at some point in its evolution. By allowing an experimenter's knowledge to be…
We discuss a simple model of co-evolution. In order to emphasise the effect of interaction between individuals the entire population is subjected to the same physical environment. Species are emergent structures and extinction, origination…
Score-driven models update time-varying parameters using conditional likelihood scores. This paper develops a Bayesian interpretation of such updates through Tweedie's formula, which connects posterior mean corrections with marginal scores.…
The Free-Energy-Principle (FEP) is an influential and controversial theory which postulates a deep and powerful connection between the stochastic thermodynamics of self-organization and learning through variational inference. Specifically,…
Consider a mathematical model of evolutionary adaptation of fitness landscape and mutation matrix as a reaction to population changes. As a basis, we use an open quasispecies model, which is modified to include explicit death flow. We…
Bayes' rule tells us how to invert a causal process in order to update our beliefs in light of new evidence. If the process is believed to have a complex compositional structure, we may ask whether composing the inversions of the component…
The appeal of thermodynamics to problems outside physics is undeniable, as is the growing recognition of its apparent universality, yet in the absence of a rigorous formalism divorced from the peculiarities of molecular systems all attempts…
It is well known that reinforcement learning can be cast as inference in an appropriate probabilistic model. However, this commonly involves introducing a distribution over agent trajectories with probabilities proportional to exponentiated…
If evolution can be connected to the principle of least action, and if it is depicted in evolution space versus time then it corresponds to the direction of ultimate causation. As an organism evolves and follows a path of proximate…
This paper proposes a new thermodynamic hypothesis that states that a nonlinear natural system that is not isolated and involves positive feedbacks tends to minimize its resistance to the flow process through it that is imposed by its…
Strategies for sustaining cooperation and preventing exploitation by selfish agents in repeated games have mostly been restricted to Markovian strategies where the response of an agent depends on the actions in the previous round. Such…
An alternative approach - nonequilibrium evolution thermodynamics, is compared with classical Landau approach. A statistical justification of the approach is carried out with help of probability distribution function on an example of a…
The Gaia hypothesis considers the life-environment coupled system as a single entity that acts to regulate and maintain habitable conditions on Earth. In this paper we discuss three mechanisms which could potentially lead to Gaia: Selection…
Adaptive systems -- such as a biological organism gaining survival advantage, an autonomous robot executing a functional task, or a motor protein transporting intracellular nutrients -- must model the regularities and stochasticity in their…