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We introduce the Reduced-Rank Hidden Markov Model (RR-HMM), a generalization of HMMs that can model smooth state evolution as in Linear Dynamical Systems (LDSs) as well as non-log-concave predictive distributions as in…

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic physics-guided framework, termed Physics-guided Deep Markov Model (PgDMM). The framework targets the inference of the characteristics and latent structure of nonlinear dynamical systems from…

We address the problem of analyzing sets of noisy time-varying signals that all report on the same process but confound straightforward analyses due to complex inter-signal heterogeneities and measurement artifacts. In particular we…

Hidden Markov Models, HMM's, are mathematical models of Markov processes with state that is hidden, but from which information can leak. They are typically represented as 3-way joint-probability distributions. We use HMM's as denotations of…

We study the frontier between learnable and unlearnable hidden Markov models (HMMs). HMMs are flexible tools for clustering dependent data coming from unknown populations. The model parameters are known to be fully identifiable (up to…

We aim to model unknown file processing. As the content of log files often evolves over time, we established a dynamic statistical model which learns and adapts processing and parsing rules. First, we limit the amount of unstructured text…

Lane determination and lane sequence determination are important components for many Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) applications. Lane determination has been solved using Hidden Markov Model (HMM) among other methods. The existing…

This paper presents a novel methodology for modelling precipitation patterns in a specific geographical region using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). Departing from conventional HMMs, where the hidden state process is assumed to be Markovian,…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are powerful tools for analysing time series data that depend on discrete underlying but unobserved states. As such, they have gained prominence across numerous empirical disciplines, in particular ecology,…

The hidden Markov model (HMM) provides a powerful framework for inference in time-varying environments, where the underlying state evolves according to a Markov chain. To address the optimal filtering problem in general dynamic settings, we…

Density estimation plays a fundamental role in many areas of statistics and machine learning. Parametric, nonparametric and semiparametric density estimation methods have been proposed in the literature. Semiparametric density models are…

The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a classic modeling tool with a wide swath of applications. Its inception considered observations restricted to a finite alphabet, but it was quickly extended to multivariate continuous distributions. In this…

In unsupervised classification, Hidden Markov Models (HMM) are used to account for a neighborhood structure between observations. The emission distributions are often supposed to belong to some parametric family. In this paper, a…

Over the last decade, hidden Markov models (HMMs) have become increasingly popular in statistical ecology, where they constitute natural tools for studying animal behavior based on complex sensor data. Corresponding analyses sometimes…

We propose a new scheme for selecting pool states for the embedded Hidden Markov Model (HMM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. This new scheme allows the embedded HMM method to be used for efficient sampling in state space models…

In this paper, we consider the filtering and smoothing recursions in nonparametric finite state space hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the parameters of the model are unknown and replaced by estimators. We provide an explicit and time…

I describe a new Markov chain method for sampling from the distribution of the state sequences in a non-linear state space model, given the observation sequence. This method updates all states in the sequence simultaneously using an…

Hidden semi-Markov Models (HSMM's) - while broadly in use - are restricted to a discrete and uniform time grid. They are thus not well suited to explain often irregularly spaced discrete event data from continuous-time phenomena. We show…

The technological applications of hidden Markov models have been extremely diverse and successful, including natural language processing, gesture recognition, gene sequencing, and Kalman filtering of physical measurements. HMMs are highly…

Generating synthetic financial time series that preserve the statistical properties of real market data is essential for stress testing, risk model validation, and scenario design. Existing approaches struggle to simultaneously reproduce…