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Estimating the counterfactual outcome of treatment is essential for decision-making in public health and clinical science, among others. Often, treatments are administered in a sequential, time-varying manner, leading to an exponentially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-16 Shenghao Wu , Wenbin Zhou , Minshuo Chen , Shixiang Zhu

Counterfactual prediction is about predicting outcome of the unobserved situation from the data. For example, given patient is on drug A, what would be the outcome if she switch to drug B. Most of existing works focus on modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Yanbo Xu , Cao Xiao , Jimeng Sun

Estimation of temporal counterfactual outcomes from observed history is crucial for decision-making in many domains such as healthcare and e-commerce, particularly when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) suffer from high cost or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Chuizheng Meng , Yihe Dong , Sercan Ö. Arık , Yan Liu , Tomas Pfister

Medical professionals evaluating alternative treatment plans for a patient often encounter time varying confounders, or covariates that affect both the future treatment assignment and the patient outcome. The recently proposed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-21 Garima Gupta , Lovekesh Vig , Gautam Shroff

In time-series classification, understanding model decisions is crucial for their application in high-stakes domains such as healthcare and finance. Counterfactual explanations, which provide insights by presenting alternative inputs that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Qi Huang , Sofoklis Kitharidis , Thomas Bäck , Niki van Stein

Counterfactual learning has become promising for understanding and modeling causality in complex and dynamic systems. This paper presents a novel method for counterfactual learning in the context of multivariate time series analysis and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Gianlucca Zuin , Adriano Veloso

Medical image segmentation is critical for clinical diagnosis, treatment planning, and monitoring, yet segmentation models often struggle with uncertainties stemming from occlusions, ambiguous boundaries, and variations in imaging devices.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-05 Xiao Ma , Yuhui Tao , Zetian Zhang , Yuhan Zhang , Xi Wang , Sheng Zhang , Zexuan Ji , Yizhe Zhang , Qiang Chen , Guang Yang

Counterfactual estimation from observations represents a critical endeavor in numerous application fields, such as healthcare and finance, with the primary challenge being the mitigation of treatment bias. The balancing strategy aimed at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-19 Qiang Huang , Chuizheng Meng , Defu Cao , Biwei Huang , Yi Chang , Yan Liu

Identifying when to give treatments to patients and how to select among multiple treatments over time are important medical problems with a few existing solutions. In this paper, we introduce the Counterfactual Recurrent Network (CRN), a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-12 Ioana Bica , Ahmed M. Alaa , James Jordon , Mihaela van der Schaar

Counterfactual explanations are increasingly proposed as interpretable mechanisms to achieve algorithmic recourse. However, current counterfactual techniques for time series classification are predominantly designed with static data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Emmanuel C. Chukwu , Rianne M. Schouten , Monique Tabak , Mykola Pechenizkiy

Decision-makers are faced with the challenge of estimating what is likely to happen when they take an action. For instance, if I choose not to treat this patient, are they likely to die? Practitioners commonly use supervised learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-02 Peter Schulam , Suchi Saria

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is relevant for many applications (e.g., personalized medicine). Yet, state-of-the-art methods build upon simple long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, thus rendering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

As super-resolution (SR) techniques introduce unique distortions that fundamentally differ from those caused by traditional degradation processes (e.g., compression), there is an increasing demand for specialized video quality assessment…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Yixiao Li , Xiaoyuan Yang , Weide Liu , Xin Jin , Xu Jia , Yukun Lai , Paul L Rosin , Haotao Liu , Wei Zhou

As a consequence of the high variability of load demand and renewable generation, long-term and high-resolution inputs are required for power system expansion planning, making the problem intractable in real-world applications. Time series…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-29 Ruiqi Zhang , Ensieh Sharifnia , Simon H. Tindemans

We begin by briefly surveying some results on the convergence of the Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) Method, proved in a companion paper by the present authors. These results are based on viewing SGD as a version of Stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-10 Rajeeva L. Karandikar , M. Vidyasagar

Robins (1998) introduced marginal structural models (MSMs), a general class of counterfactual models for the joint effects of time-varying treatment regimes in complex longitudinal studies subject to time-varying confounding. He established…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-17 Eric J Tchetgen Tchetgen , Haben Michael , Yifan Cui

Estimating causal effects on time-to-event outcomes from observational data is particularly challenging due to censoring, limited sample sizes, and non-random treatment assignment. The need for answering such "when-if" questions--how the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Jessy Xinyi Han , Devavrat Shah

The estimation of treatment effects is a pervasive problem in medicine. Existing methods for estimating treatment effects from longitudinal observational data assume that there are no hidden confounders, an assumption that is not testable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-21 Ioana Bica , Ahmed M. Alaa , Mihaela van der Schaar

Automatic speech recognition (ASR) models are frequently exposed to data distribution shifts in many real-world scenarios, leading to erroneous predictions. To tackle this issue, an existing test-time adaptation (TTA) method has recently…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-06-22 Changhun Kim , Joonhyung Park , Hajin Shim , Eunho Yang

We study counterfactual regression, which aims to map input features to outcomes under hypothetical scenarios that differ from those observed in the data. This is particularly useful for decision-making when adapting to sudden shifts in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Kwangho Kim
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