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We propose a flexible nonparametric Bayesian modelling framework for multivariate time series of count data based on tensor factorisations. Our models can be viewed as infinite state space Markov chains of known maximal order with…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-13 Zhongzhen Wang , Petros Dellaportas , Ioannis Kosmidis

With the introduction of the Electric Health Records, large amounts of digital data become available for analysis and decision support. When physicians are prescribing treatments to a patient, they need to consider a large range of data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-12-05 Yinchong Yang , Peter A. Fasching , Markus Wallwiener , Tanja N. Fehm , Sara Y. Brucker , Volker Tresp

Matching is one of the simplest approaches for estimating causal effects from observational data. Matching techniques compare the observed outcomes across pairs of individuals with similar covariate values but different treatment statuses…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-09-23 Abhishek Dalvi , Neil Ashtekar , Vasant Honavar

Propensity score trimming, which discards subjects with propensity scores below a threshold, is a common way to address positivity violations that complicate causal effect estimation. However, most works on trimming assume treatment is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-31 Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy , Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Larry Wasserman

Higher-order tensors have received increased attention across science and engineering. While most tensor decomposition methods are developed for a single tensor observation, scientific studies often collect side information, in the form of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-29 Jiaxin Hu , Chanwoo Lee , Miaoyan Wang

Causal models, also known as Structural Equation Models (SEM), are a well-known formalism for representing and reasoning about causal dependencies between events. In this paper, we show that Temporal SEMs (TSEMs), which extend SEMs to…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Maksim Gladyshev , Natasha Alechina , Brian Logan

Tensor classification is gaining importance across fields, yet handling partially observed data remains challenging. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to tensor classification with incomplete data, framed within high-dimensional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-01 Elynn Chen , Yuefeng Han , Jiayu Li

When making causal inferences, post-treatment confounders complicate analyses of time-varying treatment effects. Conditioning on these variables naively to estimate marginal effects may inappropriately block causal pathways and may induce…

Applications · Statistics 2019-04-02 Xiang Zhou , Geoffrey T. Wodtke

Emergency Department (ED) crowding is a worldwide issue that affects the efficiency of hospital management and the quality of patient care. This occurs when the request for an admit ward-bed to receive a patient is delayed until an…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-05 Jack Yutong Li , Ruoqing Zhu , Annie Qu , Han Ye , Zhankun Sun

We propose a semiparametric method to estimate the average treatment effect under the assumption of unconfoundedness given observational data. Our estimation method alleviates misspecification issues of the propensity score function by…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-16 Difang Huang , Jiti Gao , Tatsushi Oka

We introduce PRISM (Predictive Reasoning in Sequential Medicine), a transformer-based architecture designed to model the sequential progression of clinical decision-making processes. Unlike traditional approaches that rely on isolated…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Lionel Levine , John Santerre , Alex S. Young , T. Barry Levine , Francis Campion , Majid Sarrafzadeh

We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-04 Xuelin Yang , Licong Lin , Susan Athey , Michael I. Jordan , Guido W. Imbens

Most brain disorders are very heterogeneous in terms of their underlying biology and developing analysis methods to model such heterogeneity is a major challenge. A promising approach is to use probabilistic regression methods to estimate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-03 Seyed Mostafa Kia , Christian F. Beckmann , Andre F. Marquand

We propose novel estimators for categorical and continuous treatments by using an optimal covariate balancing strategy for inverse probability weighting. The resulting estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-08 Seong-ho Lee , Yanyuan Ma , Xavier de Luna

Tensor Ring (TR) decomposition is a powerful tool for high-order data modeling, but is inherently restricted to discrete forms defined on fixed meshgrids. In this work, we propose a TR functional decomposition for both meshgrid and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Yangyang Xu , Junbo Ke , You-Wei Wen , Chao Wang

We consider the problem of efficient inference of the Average Treatment Effect in a sequential experiment where the policy governing the assignment of subjects to treatment or control can change over time. We first provide a central limit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-05 Thomas Cook , Alan Mishler , Aaditya Ramdas

We propose a method for conducting asymptotically valid inference for treatment effects in a multi-valued treatment framework where the number of units in the treatment arms can be small and do not grow with the sample size. We accomplish…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-05-25 Marina Dias , Demian Pouzo

As a specific proportional hazard rates model, sequential order statistics can be used to describe the lifetimes of load-sharing systems. Inference for these systems needs to account for small sample sizes, which are prevalent in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-17 Fabian Mies , Stefan Bedbur

Predicting counterfactual outcomes in longitudinal data, where sequential treatment decisions heavily depend on evolving patient states, is critical yet notoriously challenging due to complex time-dependent confounding and inadequate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-15 Farbod Alinezhad , Jianfei Cao , Gary J. Young , Brady Post

Learning causal relationships among a set of variables, as encoded by a directed acyclic graph, from observational data is complicated by the presence of unobserved confounders. Instrumental variables (IVs) are a popular remedy for this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Jing Zou , Wei Li , Wei Lin