Related papers: Proximal Approximate Inference in State-Space Mode…

We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…

In this paper, the problem of state estimation, in the context of both filtering and smoothing, for nonlinear state-space models is considered. Due to the nonlinear nature of the models, the state estimation problem is generally intractable…

State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse…

State-space models provide an important body of techniques for analyzing time-series, but their use requires estimating unobserved states. The optimal estimate of the state is its conditional expectation given the observation histories, and…

Gaussian state space models have been used for decades as generative models of sequential data. They admit an intuitive probabilistic interpretation, have a simple functional form, and enjoy widespread adoption. We introduce a unified…

Latent Gaussian models (LGMs) are perhaps the most commonly used class of models in statistical applications. Nevertheless, in areas ranging from longitudinal studies in biostatistics to geostatistics, it is easy to find datasets that…

This paper is considered with joint estimation of state and time-varying noise covariance matrices in non-linear stochastic state space models. We present a variational Bayes and Gaussian filtering based algorithm for efficient computation…

We consider the problem of sequential estimation of the unknowns of state-space and deep state-space models that include estimation of functions and latent processes of the models. The proposed approach relies on Gaussian and deep Gaussian…

We perform approximate inference in state-space models with nonlinear state transitions. Without parameterizing a generative model, we apply Bayesian update formulas using a local linearity approximation parameterized by neural networks.…

This paper deals with the state estimation of non-linear and non-Gaussian systems with an emphasis on the numerical solution to the Bayesian recursive relations. In particular, this paper builds upon the Lagrangian grid-based filter (GbF)…

We provide a comprehensive overview and tooling for GP modeling with non-Gaussian likelihoods using state space methods. The state space formulation allows for solving one-dimensional GP models in $\mathcal{O}(n)$ time and memory…

This paper presents a fast algorithm for estimating hidden states of Bayesian state space models. The algorithm is a variation of amortized simulation-based inference algorithms, where a large number of artificial datasets are generated at…

We present a scalable and robust Bayesian inference method for linear state space models. The method is applied to demand forecasting in the context of a large e-commerce platform, paying special attention to intermittent and bursty target…

Approximate Bayesian inference methods that scale to very large datasets are crucial in leveraging probabilistic models for real-world time series. Sparse Markovian Gaussian processes combine the use of inducing variables with efficient…

In this article, we introduce parallel-in-time methods for state and parameter estimation in general nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models using the statistical linear regression and the iterated statistical posterior linearization…

We propose a new variational inference algorithm for learning in Gaussian Process State-Space Models (GPSSMs). Our algorithm enables learning of unstable and partially observable systems, where previous algorithms fail. Our main algorithmic…

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is…

State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…

Recently, a novel linear model predictive control algorithm based on a physics-informed Gaussian Process has been introduced, whose realizations strictly follow a system of underlying linear ordinary differential equations with constant…

We consider the problem of approximate Bayesian parameter inference in non-linear state-space models with intractable likelihoods. Sequential Monte Carlo with approximate Bayesian computations (SMC-ABC) is one approach to approximate the…