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Model ensembling is a well-established technique for improving the performance of machine learning models. Conventionally, this involves averaging the output distributions of multiple models and selecting the most probable label. This idea…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Jiale Fu , Yuchu Jiang , Peijun Wu , Chonghan Liu , Joey Tianyi Zhou , Xu Yang

Many businesses and industries require accurate forecasts for weekly time series nowadays. However, the forecasting literature does not currently provide easy-to-use, automatic, reproducible and accurate approaches dedicated to this task.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Rakshitha Godahewa , Christoph Bergmeir , Geoffrey I. Webb , Pablo Montero-Manso

This paper studies the application of ensembles composed of multi-output models for multi-step ahead forecasting problems. Dynamic ensembles have been commonly used for forecasting. However, these are typically designed for one-step-ahead…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-27 Vitor Cerqueira , Luis Torgo

Stacking, a potent ensemble learning method, leverages a meta-model to harness the strengths of multiple base models, thereby enhancing prediction accuracy. Traditional stacking techniques typically utilize established learning models, such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-31 Wei Wu , Liang Tang , Zhongjie Zhao , Chung-Piaw Teo

Accurate time series forecasting is critical for a wide range of problems with temporal data. Ensemble modeling is a well-established technique for leveraging multiple predictive models to increase accuracy and robustness, as the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Dimitris Bertsimas , Leonard Boussioux

Given the continuous increase in dataset sizes and the complexity of forecasting models, the trade-off between forecast accuracy and computational cost is emerging as an extremely relevant topic, especially in the context of ensemble…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Marco Zanotti

Ensemble methods, such as stacking, are designed to boost predictive accuracy by blending the predictions of multiple machine learning models. Recent work has shown that the use of meta-features, additional inputs describing each example in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2009-11-04 Joseph Sill , Gabor Takacs , Lester Mackey , David Lin

Stacking (or stacked generalization) is an ensemble learning method with one main distinctiveness from the rest: even though several base models are trained on the original data set, their predictions are further used as input data for one…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-19 Ilya Ploshchik , Angelos Chatzimparmpas , Andreas Kerren

Recent state-of-the-art forecasting methods are trained on collections of time series. These methods, often referred to as global models, can capture common patterns in different time series to improve their generalization performance.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Vitor Cerqueira , Nuno Moniz , Ricardo Inácio , Carlos Soares

We investigate ensemble methods for prediction in an online setting. Unlike all the literature in ensembling, for the first time, we introduce a new approach using a meta learner that effectively combines the base model predictions via…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Arda Fazla , Mustafa Enes Aydin , Orhun Tamyigit , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

The predictive advantage of combining several different predictive models is widely accepted. Particularly in time series forecasting problems, this combination is often dynamic to cope with potential non-stationary sources of variation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-06 Vitor Cerqueira , Luis Torgo , Carlos Soares , Albert Bifet

Stacking regressions is an ensemble technique that forms linear combinations of different regression estimators to enhance predictive accuracy. The conventional approach uses cross-validation data to generate predictions from the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 Xin Chen , Jason M. Klusowski , Yan Shuo Tan

While machine learning has witnessed significant advancements, the emphasis has largely been on data acquisition and model creation. However, achieving a comprehensive assessment of machine learning solutions in real-world settings…

Machine learning-based Deepfake detection models have achieved impressive results on benchmark datasets, yet their performance often deteriorates significantly when evaluated on out-of-distribution data. In this work, we investigate an…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-09 Haroon Wahab , Hassan Ugail , Lujain Jaleel

Convolutional Neural Networks have achieved state-of-the-art performance on a wide range of tasks. Most benchmarks are led by ensembles of these powerful learners, but ensembling is typically treated as a post-hoc procedure implemented by…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2015-11-20 Stefan Lee , Senthil Purushwalkam , Michael Cogswell , David Crandall , Dhruv Batra

The paper describes the use of Bayesian regression for building time series models and stacking different predictive models for time series. Using Bayesian regression for time series modeling with nonlinear trend was analyzed. This approach…

Applications · Statistics 2022-01-07 Bohdan M. Pavlyshenko

Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. This study explores an application of machine learning (ML) models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Elena Orlova , Haokun Liu , Raphael Rossellini , Benjamin A. Cash , Rebecca Willett

Ensemble weather forecasts enable a measure of uncertainty to be attached to each forecast, by computing the ensemble's spread. However, generating an ensemble with a good spread-error relationship is far from trivial, and a wide range of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-01-05 Sebastian Scher , Gabriele Messori

The adaptation of large language models (LLMs) to time series forecasting poses unique challenges, as time series data is continuous in nature, while LLMs operate on discrete tokens. Despite the success of LLMs in natural language…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Taibiao Zhao , Xiaobing Chen , Mingxuan Sun

The importance of accurately quantifying forecast uncertainty has motivated much recent research on probabilistic forecasting. In particular, a variety of deep learning approaches has been proposed, with forecast distributions obtained as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-11 Benedikt Schulz , Lutz Köhler , Sebastian Lerch