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This paper introduces a novel and scalable framework for uncertainty estimation and separation with applications in data driven modeling in science and engineering tasks where reliable uncertainty quantification is critical. Leveraging an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-19 Navid Ansari , Hans-Peter Seidel , Vahid Babaei

The core of knowledge distillation lies in transferring the teacher's rich 'dark knowledge'-subtle probabilistic patterns that reveal how classes are related and the distribution of uncertainties. While this idea is well established,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Jeonghyun Kim , SooKyung Kim , Richeng Xuan , Hyunsoo Cho

We study the problem of progressive ensemble distillation: Given a large, pretrained teacher model $g$, we seek to decompose the model into smaller, low-inference cost student models $f_i$, such that progressively evaluating additional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Don Kurian Dennis , Abhishek Shetty , Anish Sevekari , Kazuhito Koishida , Virginia Smith

Deep networks have been revolutionary in improving performance of machine learning and artificial intelligence systems. Their high prediction accuracy, however, comes at a price of \emph{model irreproducibility\/} in very high levels that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-21 Gil I. Shamir , Lorenzo Coviello

Deep ensembles can be considered as the current state-of-the-art for uncertainty quantification in deep learning. While the approach was originally proposed as a non-Bayesian technique, arguments supporting its Bayesian footing have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-19 Lara Hoffmann , Clemens Elster

When recognizing emotions, subtle nuances in displays of emotion generate ambiguity or uncertainty in emotion perception. Emotion uncertainty has been previously interpreted as inter-rater disagreement among multiple annotators. In this…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Didan Deng , Liang Wu , Bertram E. Shi

We formally study how ensemble of deep learning models can improve test accuracy, and how the superior performance of ensemble can be distilled into a single model using knowledge distillation. We consider the challenging case where the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-16 Zeyuan Allen-Zhu , Yuanzhi Li

Human Activity Recognition (HAR) has seen significant advancements with the adoption of deep learning techniques, yet challenges remain in terms of data requirements, reliability and robustness. This paper explores a novel application of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-11 Matthew Nolan , Lina Yao , Robert Davidson

Uncertainty quantification in automated image analysis is highly desired in many applications. Typically, machine learning models in classification or segmentation are only developed to provide binary answers; however, quantifying the…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is crucial for deploying machine learning models in high-stakes applications, where overconfident predictions can lead to serious consequences. An effective UQ method must balance computational efficiency…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Taeseong Yoon , Heeyoung Kim

This paper introduces an efficient sub-model ensemble framework aimed at enhancing the interpretability of medical deep learning models, thus increasing their clinical applicability. By generating uncertainty maps, this framework enables…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-11 Weijie Chen , Alan McMillan

Deep Ensembles are a simple, reliable, and effective method of improving both the predictive performance and uncertainty estimates of deep learning approaches. However, they are widely criticised as being computationally expensive, due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Guoxuan Xia , Christos-Savvas Bouganis

Uncertainty estimation and ensembling methods go hand-in-hand. Uncertainty estimation is one of the main benchmarks for assessment of ensembling performance. At the same time, deep learning ensembles have provided state-of-the-art results…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-20 Arsenii Ashukha , Alexander Lyzhov , Dmitry Molchanov , Dmitry Vetrov

Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is a popular framework for uncertainty-aware classification that models predictive uncertainty via Dirichlet distributions parameterized by neural networks. Despite its popularity, its theoretical foundations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-03 Pietro Carlotti , Nevena Gligić , Arya Farahi

Deep learning models struggle with uncertainty estimation. Many approaches are either computationally infeasible or underestimate uncertainty. We investigate \textit{BatchEnsemble} as a general and scalable method for uncertainty estimation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-30 Morten Blørstad , Herman Jangsett Mostein , Nello Blaser , Pekka Parviainen

The ability to estimate epistemic uncertainty is often crucial when deploying machine learning in the real world, but modern methods often produce overconfident, uncalibrated uncertainty predictions. A common approach to quantify epistemic…

We introduce credal two-sample testing, a new hypothesis testing framework for comparing credal sets -- convex sets of probability measures where each element captures aleatoric uncertainty and the set itself represents epistemic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-14 Siu Lun Chau , Antonin Schrab , Arthur Gretton , Dino Sejdinovic , Krikamol Muandet

For many practical, high-risk applications, it is essential to quantify uncertainty in a model's predictions to avoid costly mistakes. While predictive uncertainty is widely studied for neural networks, the topic seems to be under-explored…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-05 Andrey Malinin , Liudmila Prokhorenkova , Aleksei Ustimenko

Uncertainty estimation has been extensively studied in recent literature, which can usually be classified as aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. In current aleatoric uncertainty estimation frameworks, it is often neglected that…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Jing Zhang , Yuchao Dai , Mehrtash Harandi , Yiran Zhong , Nick Barnes , Richard Hartley

Contemporary undertakings provide limitless opportunities for widespread application of machine reasoning and artificial intelligence in situations characterised by uncertainty, hostility and sheer volume of data. The paper develops a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-08-05 Branko Ristic , Alessio Benavoli , Sanjeev Arulampalam