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Monte Carlo simulations are a powerful tool to investigate the thermodynamic properties of atomic systems. In practice however, sampling of the complete configuration space is often hindered by high energy barriers between different regions…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-05-04 Jonas A. Finkler , Stefan Goedecker

The non-Markovian nature of rough volatility processes makes Monte Carlo methods challenging and it is in fact a major challenge to develop fast and accurate simulation algorithms. We provide an efficient one for stochastic Volterra…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-14 Blanka Horvath , Antoine Jacquier , Aitor Muguruza , Andreas Sojmark

In this paper, we are interested in linear prediction of a particular kind of stochastic process, namely a marked temporal point process. The observations are event times recorded on the real line, with marks attached to each event. We show…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-18 Maximilian Aigner , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem, which has attracted the attention of many researchers due to its critical real-life applications. In particular, we introduce a novel approach to this problem. Our approach is based on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-07 Oguzhan Karaahmetoglu , Suleyman Serdar Kozat

In this paper, we present a novel numerical scheme for simulating deformable and extensible capsules suspended in a Stokesian fluid. The main feature of our scheme is a partition-of-unity (POU) based representation of the surface that…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-04-09 Dhwanit Agarwal , George Biros

In this paper, we investigate and analyze numerical solutions for the Volterra integrodifferential equations with tempered multi-term kernels. Firstly we derive some regularity estimates of the exact solution. Then a temporal-discrete…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-05-03 Wenlin Qiu

Asynchronous events sequences are widely distributed in the natural world and human activities, such as earthquakes records, users activities in social media and so on. How to distill the information from these seemingly disorganized data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-30 Lu-ning Zhang , Jian-wei Liu , Zhi-yan Song , Xin Zuo

We present the first linear time complexity randomized algorithms for unbiased approximation of the celebrated family of general random walk kernels (RWKs) for sparse graphs. This includes both labelled and unlabelled instances. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-16 Krzysztof Choromanski , Isaac Reid , Arijit Sehanobish , Avinava Dubey

A Gaussian Cox process is a popular model for point process data, in which the intensity function is a transformation of a Gaussian process. Posterior inference of this intensity function involves an intractable integral (i.e., the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-01 Bingjing Tang , Julia Palacios

Current methods for stochastic hyperparameter learning in Gaussian Processes (GPs) rely on approximations, such as computing biased stochastic gradients or using inducing points in stochastic variational inference. However, when using such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-29 Neta Shoham , Haim Avron

Models of complex systems are often formalized as sequential software simulators: computationally intensive programs that iteratively build up probable system configurations given parameters and initial conditions. These simulators enable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-02 Ardavan Saeedi , Vlad Firoiu , Vikash Mansinghka

Several methods have been developed for the simulation of the Hawkes process. The oldest approach is the inverse sampling transform (ITS) suggested in \citep{ozaki1979maximum}, but rapidly abandoned in favor of more efficient alternatives.…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-07-23 Martin Magris

We show that univariate and symmetric multivariate Hawkes processes are only weakly causal: the true log-likelihoods of real and reversed event time vectors are almost equal, thus parameter estimation via maximum likelihood only weakly…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-04-18 Marcus Cordi , Damien Challet , Ioane Muni Toke

To speed up Gaussian process inference, a number of fast kernel matrix-vector multiplication (MVM) approximation algorithms have been proposed over the years. In this paper, we establish an exact fast kernel MVM algorithm based on exact…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-05 Nicolas Langrené , Xavier Warin , Pierre Gruet

We describe a simple quantum algorithm to simulate time-dependent Hamiltonian, extending the methodology of quantum signal processing. The framework achieves optimal scaling up to some factor with respect to other parameters, and nearly…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-03-11 Nhat A. Nghiem

Many high-energy-physics (HEP) simulations for the LHC rely on Monte Carlo using importance sampling by means of the VEGAS algorithm. However, complex high-precision calculations have become a challenge for the standard toolbox, as this…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2024-02-26 Nicolas Deutschmann , Niklas Götz

Hawkes processes have recently risen to the forefront of tools when it comes to modeling and generating sequential events data. Multidimensional Hawkes processes model both the self and cross-excitation between different types of events and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-13 Renbo Zhao , Niccolò Dalmasso , Mohsen Ghassemi , Vamsi K. Potluru , Tucker Balch , Manuela Veloso

In this paper, we present a very fast Monte Carlo scheme for additive processes: the computational time is of the same order of magnitude of standard algorithms for Brownian motions. We analyze in detail numerical error sources and propose…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-07-17 Michele Azzone , Roberto Baviera

Numerous studies grounded on Hawkes processes have been carried out in many fields including finance, biology and social network. Hawkes processes form a class of selfexciting simple point processes. In this article, we consider a general…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-22 Bartholomé Vieille , Rachid Senoussi , Samuel Soubeyrand

A Gaussian Process (GP) is a prominent mathematical framework for stochastic function approximation in science and engineering applications. This success is largely attributed to the GP's analytical tractability, robustness, non-parametric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-19 Marcus M. Noack , Harinarayan Krishnan , Mark D. Risser , Kristofer G. Reyes