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Time-series forecasting plays an important role in many domains. Boosted by the advances in Deep Learning algorithms, it has for instance been used to predict wind power for eolic energy production, stock market fluctuations, or motor…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-23 Luis P. Silvestrin , Leonardos Pantiskas , Mark Hoogendoorn

There has been a recent surge of interest in time series modeling using the Transformer architecture. However, forecasting multivariate time series with Transformer presents a unique challenge as it requires modeling both temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-04 Yu-Hsiang Lan , Eric K. Oermann

Unlike natural language processing and computer vision, the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for time series forecasting is blocked due to data scarcity. While recent efforts are focused on building such FMs by unlocking the potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Qingxiang Liu , Xu Liu , Chenghao Liu , Qingsong Wen , Yuxuan Liang

Multivariate Time Series (MTS) forecasting plays a vital role in various real-world applications, such as traffic management and predictive maintenance. Existing approaches typically model MTS data in either Euclidean or Riemannian space,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Yong Fang , Na Li , Hangguan Shan , Eryun Liu , Xinyu Li , Wei Ni , Er-Ping Li

Multivariate long-term time series forecasting has been suffering from the challenge of capturing both temporal dependencies within variables and spatial correlations across variables simultaneously. Current approaches predominantly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-15 Chenheng Xu , Dan Wu , Yixin Zhu , Ying Nian Wu

We propose a Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD)-type algorithm for Personalized Federated Learning which can be particularly attractive for mobile energy-limited regimes due to its low per-client computational cost. The model to be trained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-15 Sotirios Nikoloutsopoulos , Iordanis Koutsopoulos , Michalis K. Titsias

Learning complex time series forecasting models usually requires a large amount of data, as each model is trained from scratch for each task/data set. Leveraging learning experience with similar datasets is a well-established technique for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-19 Lukas Brinkmeyer , Rafael Rego Drumond , Johannes Burchert , Lars Schmidt-Thieme

Integrating wind power into the grid is challenging because of its random nature. Integration is facilitated with accurate short-term forecasts of wind power. The paper presents a spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting algorithm that…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-03-05 Borhan M. Sanandaji , Akin Tascikaraoglu , Kameshwar Poolla , Pravin Varaiya

The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors. This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby negatively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-15 Sakshi Mishra , Praveen Palanisamy

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have borrowed the long context paradigm from natural language processing under the premise that feeding more history into the model improves forecast quality. But in stochastic domains, distant history…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Rishi Ahuja , Kumar Prateek , Simranjit Singh , Vijay Kumar

We study adaptive pooling under predictive heterogeneity in high-dimensional multivariate time series forecasting, where global models improve statistical efficiency but may fail to capture heterogeneous predictive structure, while naive…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-16 Ziling Ma , Ángel López Oriona , Hernando Ombao , Ying Sun

This paper introduces a novel meta-learning algorithm for time series forecast model performance prediction. We model the forecast error as a function of time series features calculated from the historical time series with an efficient…

Applications · Statistics 2022-07-11 Thiyanga S. Talagala , Feng Li , Yanfei Kang

We explore fixed-horizon temporal difference (TD) methods, reinforcement learning algorithms for a new kind of value function that predicts the sum of rewards over a $\textit{fixed}$ number of future time steps. To learn the value function…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-12 Kristopher De Asis , Alan Chan , Silviu Pitis , Richard S. Sutton , Daniel Graves

In this paper, we propose a heterogeneous federated learning (HFL) system for sparse time series prediction in healthcare, which is a decentralized federated learning algorithm with heterogeneous transfers. We design dense and sparse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Jia-Hao Syu , Jerry Chun-Wei Lin

Heterogeneous temporal graphs (HTGs) are ubiquitous data structures in the real world. Recently, to enhance representation learning on HTGs, numerous attention-based neural networks have been proposed. Despite these successes, existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Yili Wang , Tairan Huang , Changlong He , Qiutong Li , Jianliang Gao

We propose Lite-STGNN, a lightweight spatial-temporal graph neural network for long-term multivariate forecasting that integrates decomposition-based temporal modeling with learnable sparse graph structure. The temporal module applies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-22 Henok Tenaw Moges , Deshendran Moodley

Recently, deep learning has driven significant advancements in multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) tasks. However, much of the current research in MTSF tends to evaluate models from a holistic perspective, which obscures the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Shuang Liang , Chaochuan Hou , Xu Yao , Shiping Wang , Minqi Jiang , Songqiao Han , Hailiang Huang

We address a three-tier numerical framework based on manifold learning for the forecasting of high-dimensional time series. At the first step, we embed the time series into a reduced low-dimensional space using a nonlinear manifold learning…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-03-16 Panagiotis Papaioannou , Ronen Talmon , Ioannis Kevrekidis , Constantinos Siettos

Spatial-temporal data contains rich information and has been widely studied in recent years due to the rapid development of relevant applications in many fields. For instance, medical institutions often use electrodes attached to different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-15 Tiehua Zhang , Yuze Liu , Zhishu Shen , Rui Xu , Xin Chen , Xiaowei Huang , Xi Zheng

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) offers broad utility in practical settings like energy consumption and weather prediction. Accurately predicting long-term changes, however, is demanding due to the intricate temporal patterns and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Boshi Gao , Qingjian Ni , Fanbo Ju , Yu Chen , Ziqi Zhao