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This work proposes a framework, embedded within the Performance Estimation framework (PEP), for obtaining worst-case performance guarantees on stochastic first-order methods. Given a first-order method, a function class, and a noise model…
The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the…
Hierarchical forecasting (HF) is needed in many situations in the supply chain (SC) because managers often need different levels of forecasts at different levels of SC to make a decision. Top-Down (TD), Bottom-Up (BU) and Optimal…
Premium automotive manufacturers face increasingly complex forecasting challenges due to high product variety, sparse variant-level data, and volatile market dynamics. This study addresses monthly automobile demand forecasting across a…
We propose a novel approach to the problem of clustering hierarchically aggregated time-series data, which has remained an understudied problem though it has several commercial applications. We first group time series at each aggregated…
We introduce Thurstonian Boltzmann Machines (TBM), a unified architecture that can naturally incorporate a wide range of data inputs at the same time. Our motivation rests in the Thurstonian view that many discrete data types can be…
Bayesian predictive inference analyzes a dataset to make predictions about new observations. When a model does not match the data, predictive accuracy suffers. We develop population empirical Bayes (POP-EB), a hierarchical framework that…
Heterogeneous cellular networks (HCN) with embedded small cells are considered, where multiple mobile users wish to download network content of different popularity. By caching data into the small-cell base stations (SBS), we will design…
Dual-sourcing inventory systems, in which one supplier is faster (i.e. express) and more costly, while the other is slower (i.e. regular) and cheaper, arise naturally in many real-world supply chains. These systems are notoriously difficult…
Intermittent demand, where demand occurrences appear sporadically in time, is a common and challenging problem in forecasting. In this paper, we first make the connections between renewal processes, and a collection of current models used…
Previous statistical approaches to hierarchical clustering for social network analysis all construct an "ultrametric" hierarchy. While the assumption of ultrametricity has been discussed and studied in the phylogenetics literature, it has…
In hierarchical forecasting, the process of forecast reconciliation transforms a set of "base" or "raw" forecasts, which do not satisfy the hierarchical aggregation constraints in the real data, into a set of "coherent" forecasts, which do…
In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…
There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…
Neural networks (NNs) are primarily developed within the frequentist statistical framework. Nevertheless, frequentist NNs lack the capability to provide uncertainties in the predictions, and hence their robustness can not be adequately…
Transient stability boundary (TSB) is an important tool in power system online security monitoring, but practically it suffers from high computational burden using state-of-the-art methods, such as time-domain simulation (TDS), with…
Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are a widely used framework for modeling systems whose probabilistic structure evolves over time. Standard inference methods focus on local conditional distributions and can miss larger-scale patterns in how…
Hierarchical models with gamma hyperpriors provide a flexible, sparse-promoting framework to bridge $L^1$ and $L^2$ regularizations in Bayesian formulations to inverse problems. Despite the Bayesian motivation for these models, existing…
Few Bayesian methods for analyzing high-dimensional sparse survival data provide scalable variable selection, effect estimation and uncertainty quantification. Such methods often either sacrifice uncertainty quantification by computing…
Continuous-time Bayesian Networks (CTBNs) represent a compact yet powerful framework for understanding multivariate time-series data. Given complete data, parameters and structure can be estimated efficiently in closed-form. However, if…