Related papers: Optimal Hold-Out Size in Cross-Validation

Causal inference starts with a simple idea: compare groups that differ by treatment, not much else. Traditionally, similar groups are constructed using only observed covariates; however, it remains a long-standing challenge to incorporate…

Ensemble disagreement is widely used as a proxy for epistemic uncertainty in medical image segmentation. In practice, many studies form ensembles via K-fold cross-validation (CV), yet refer to them as ``deep ensembles'' (DE). Because CV…

The $k$-nearest neighbor algorithm ($k$-NN) is a widely used non-parametric method for classification and regression. We study the mean squared error of the $k$-NN estimator when $k$ is chosen by leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV).…

We analyze the statistical properties of generalized cross-validation (GCV) and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) applied to early-stopped gradient descent (GD) in high-dimensional least squares regression. We prove that GCV is…

Model averaging is an important alternative to model selection with attractive prediction accuracy. However, its application to high-dimensional data remains under-explored. We propose a high-dimensional model averaging method via…

We investigate the accuracy of the two most common estimators for the maximum expected value of a general set of random variables: a generalization of the maximum sample average, and cross validation. No unbiased estimator exists and we…

Conformal inference, cross-validation+, and the jackknife+ are hold-out methods that can be combined with virtually any machine learning algorithm to construct prediction sets with guaranteed marginal coverage. In this paper, we develop…

Recent studies have shown that tuning prediction models increases prediction accuracy and that Random Forest can be used to construct prediction intervals. However, to our best knowledge, no study has investigated the need to, and the…

Comparing $K$-sample distributions is a fundamental problem in data science that arises in a wide variety of fields and applications. In this article, we introduce a maximum-of-differences approach to make such comparisons. Specifically, we…

We consider the parametric learning problem, where the objective of the learner is determined by a parametric loss function. Employing empirical risk minimization with possibly regularization, the inferred parameter vector will be biased…

Confidence calibration has been dominated by the Expected Calibration Error (ECE), a linear metric that counts calibration offset equally regardless of the confidence level at which it occurs. We show that ECE can remain small even under…

Consider the following class of learning schemes: $$\hat{\boldsymbol{\beta}} := \arg\min_{\boldsymbol{\beta}}\;\sum_{j=1}^n \ell(\boldsymbol{x}_j^\top\boldsymbol{\beta}; y_j) + \lambda R(\boldsymbol{\beta}),\qquad\qquad (1) $$ where…

Sample size determination for cluster randomised trials (CRTs) is challenging as it requires robust estimation of the intra-cluster correlation coefficient (ICC). Typically, the sample size is chosen to provide a certain level of power to…

Evaluating models fit to data with internal spatial structure requires specific cross-validation (CV) approaches, because randomly selecting assessment data may produce assessment sets that are not truly independent of data used to train…

It is common for researchers to holdout data from a study pool to be used for external validation as well as for future research, and the same desire is true to those using machine learning modeling research. For this discussion, the…

Recently, new methods for model assessment, based on subsampling and posterior approximations, have been proposed for scaling leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) to large datasets. Although these methods work well for estimating predictive…

We consider the variable selection problem, which seeks to identify important variables influencing a response $Y$ out of many candidate features $X_1, \ldots, X_p$. We wish to do so while offering finite-sample guarantees about the…

An important issue in many multivariate regression problems is to eliminate candidate predictors with null predictor vectors. In large-dimensional (LD) setting where the numbers of responses and predictors are large, model selection…

Using a support vector machine requires to set two types of hyperparameters: the soft margin parameter C and the parameters of the kernel. To perform this model selection task, the method of choice is cross-validation. Its leave-one-out…

The adaptive lasso refers to a class of methods that use weighted versions of the $L_1$-norm penalty, with weights derived from an initial estimate of the parameter vector to be estimated. Irrespective of the method chosen to compute this…