English
Related papers

Related papers: Stochastic Predictive Analytics for Stocks in the …

200 papers

Model Predictive Control is an extremely effective control method for systems with input and state constraints. Model Predictive Control performance heavily depends on the accuracy of the open-loop prediction. For systems with uncertainty…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-07-27 Francesco Micheli , John Lygeros

To the naked eye, stock prices are considered chaotic, dynamic, and unpredictable. Indeed, it is one of the most difficult forecasting tasks that hundreds of millions of retail traders and professional traders around the world try to do…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-17 Shuozhe Li , Zachery B Schulwol , Risto Miikkulainen

We study non-stationary single-item, periodic-review inventory control problems in which the demand distribution is unknown and may change over time. We analyze how demand non-stationarity affects learning performance across inventory…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-06 Nele H. Amiri , Sean R. Sinclair , Maximiliano Udenio

In this paper we seek to demonstrate the predictability of stock market returns and explain the nature of this return predictability. To this end, we introduce investors with different investment horizons into the news-driven, analytic,…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-03-30 Dimitri Kroujiline , Maxim Gusev , Dmitry Ushanov , Sergey V. Sharov , Boris Govorkov

We study the classical newsvendor problem in which the decision-maker must trade-off underage and overage costs. In contrast to the typical setting, we assume that the decision-maker does not know the underlying distribution driving…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-07-27 Omar Besbes , Omar Mouchtaki

In classical newsvendor model, piece-wise linear shortage and excess costs are balanced out to determine the optimal order quantity. However, for critical perishable commodities, severity of the costs may be much more than linear. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-01 Soham Ghosh , Sujay Mukhoti

Since the seminal work of Scarf (1958) [A min-max solution of an inventory problem, Studies in the Mathematical Theory of Inventory and Production, pages 201-209] on the newsvendor problem with ambiguity in the demand distribution, there…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-20 Bikramjit Das , Anulekha Dhara , Karthik Natarajan

Traditional statistical estimation, or statistical inference in general, is static, in the sense that the estimate of the quantity of interest does not change the future evolution of the quantity. In some sequential estimation problems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-01 Aolin Xu

This manuscript reports a stochastic dynamical scenario whose associated stationary probability density function is exactly a previously proposed one to adjust high-frequency traded volume distributions. This dynamical conjecture,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Silvio M. Duarte Queiros

We attempt to explain stock market dynamics in terms of the interaction among three variables: market price, investor opinion and information flow. We propose a framework for such interaction and apply it to build a model of stock market…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-09-23 Maxim Gusev , Dimitri Kroujiline , Boris Govorkov , Sergey V. Sharov , Dmitry Ushanov , Maxim Zhilyaev

We introduce a new class of adaptive policies called periodic-affine policies, that allows a decision maker to optimally manage and control large-scale newsvendor networks in the presence of uncertain demand without distributional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-06-19 Chaithanya Bandi , Eojin Han , Omid Nohadani

E-grocery retailing enables ordering products online to be delivered at a future time slot chosen by the customer. This emerging field of business provides retailers with large and comprehensive new data sets, yet creates several challenges…

General Economics · Economics 2024-04-08 David Winkelmann , Matthias Ulrich , Michael Römer , Roland Langrock , Hermann Jahnke

In this paper, we propose a stochastic scheduling strategy for estimating the states of N discrete-time linear time invariant (DTLTI) dynamic systems, where only one system can be observed by the sensor at each time instant due to practical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-06-23 Chong Li , Nicola Elia

Accurately predicting stock returns is crucial for effective portfolio management. However, existing methods often overlook a fundamental issue in the market, namely, distribution shifts, making them less practical for predicting future…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-09-04 Haiyao Cao , Jinan Zou , Yuhang Liu , Zhen Zhang , Ehsan Abbasnejad , Anton van den Hengel , Javen Qinfeng Shi

We propose a novel data-driven stochastic model predictive control framework for uncertain linear systems with noisy output measurements. Our approach leverages multi-step predictors to efficiently propagate uncertainty, ensuring chance…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-18 Haldun Balim , Andrea Carron , Melanie N. Zeilinger , Johannes Köhler

We consider a sequential decision making process, such as renewable energy trading or electrical production scheduling, whose outcome depends on the future realization of a random factor, such as a meteorological variable. We assume that…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-01 Peter Tankov , Laura Tinsi

Efficient Market Hypothesis is the popular theory about stock prediction. With its failure much research has been carried in the area of prediction of stocks. This project is about taking non quantifiable data such as financial news…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2016-07-08 Joshi Kalyani , Prof. H. N. Bharathi , Prof. Rao Jyothi

Starting from the Avellaneda-Stoikov framework, we consider a market maker who wants to optimally set bid/ask quotes over a finite time horizon, to maximize her expected utility. The intensities of the orders she receives depend not only on…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2020-06-29 Diego Zabaljauregui , Luciano Campi

This paper presents a stochastic, model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that leverages short-term probabilistic forecasts for dispatching and rebalancing Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand systems (AMoD, i.e. fleets of self-driving vehicles).…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-05-07 Matthew Tsao , Ramon Iglesias , Marco Pavone

In this paper we study a continuous time stochastic inventory model for a commodity traded in the spot market and whose supply purchase is affected by price and demand uncertainty. A firm aims at meeting a random demand of the commodity at…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-06-12 Maria B. Chiarolla , Giorgio Ferrari , Gabriele Stabile