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We examine statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years, finding techniques for dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of historical data. We introduce a novel approach to apply extreme value theory to…
We examine whether harvest-time transitory shifts in employment and income lead to changes in political violence and social unrest in rice-producing croplands of Southeast Asia. Using monthly data from 2010 to 2023 on over 86,000 incidents…
There is continuing interest in the investigation of change in temperature over space and time. We offer a set of tools to illuminate such change temporally, at desired temporal resolution, and spatially, according to region of interest,…
Self-exciting Hawkes processes are used to model events which cluster in time and space, and have been widely studied in seismology under the name of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. In the ETAS framework, the occurrence…
Regional disaster resilience quantifies the changing nature of physical risks to inform policy instruments ranging from local immediate recovery to international sustainable development. While many existing state-of-practice methods have…
Suicides cause over 49000 deaths yearly in the United States, 55% involving firearms. Suicide mortality exhibits substantial geographical and sociodemographic heterogeneity; yet the role of social networks remains underexplored. To assess…
Statistical models for landslide hazard enable mapping of risk factors and landslide occurrence intensity by using geomorphological covariates available at high spatial resolution. However, the spatial distribution of the triggering event…
Hate speech is ubiquitous on the Web. Recently, the offline causes that contribute to online hate speech have received increasing attention. A recurring question is whether the occurrence of extreme events offline systematically triggers…
Excess mortality is defined as an increase in the number of deaths above what is expected based on historical trends, hereafter called baseline. In a previous paper, we introduced a statistical method that allows an unbiased and robust…
In the last year more than 70,000 people have been brought to the UK hospitals with serious injuries. Each time a clinician has to urgently take a patient through a screening procedure to make a reliable decision on the trauma treatment.…
The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), a critical health indicator, is typically estimated from household surveys in lower and middle income countries. Spatio-temporal disaggregation of household survey data can lead to highly variable…
COVID-19 has had a large scale negative impact on the health of opioid users exacerbating the health of an already vulnerable population. Critical information on the total impact of COVID-19 on opioid users is unknown due to a lack of…
The ETAS model is widely employed to model the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes, generally using spatially invariant parameters. We propose an efficient method for the estimation of spatially varying parameters, using the…
In many developing nations, a lack of poverty data prevents critical humanitarian organizations from responding to large-scale crises. Currently, socioeconomic surveys are the only method implemented on a large scale for organizations and…
Modern armed conflicts have a tendency to cluster together and spread geographically. However, the geography of most conflicts remains under-studied. To fill this gap, this article presents a new indicator that measures two key geographical…
Quantifying and predicting rare and extreme events persists as a crucial yet challenging task in understanding complex dynamical systems. Many practical challenges arise from the infrequency and severity of these events, including the…
Reliable mortality estimates at the subnational level are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations, where the stochastic…
The number of recurrent events before a terminating event is often of interest. For instance, death terminates an individual's process of rehospitalizations and the number of rehospitalizations is an important indicator of economic cost. We…
Exposure to high ambient temperatures is a significant driver of preventable mortality, with non-linear health effects and elevated risks in specific regions. To capture this complexity and account for spatial dependencies across small…
The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…