Related papers: Aggregating Conformal Prediction Sets via {\alpha}…
Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with guaranteed marginal coverage. However, in split conformal prediction this guarantee is training-conditional only in expectation: across many calibration draws, the average…
Conformal prediction has recently emerged as a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of a predictive model; these algorithms modify the model to output sets of labels that are guaranteed to contain the true label with high…
We consider conformal prediction for multivariate data and focus on hierarchical data, where some components are linear combinations of others. Intuitively, the hierarchical structure can be leveraged to reduce the size of prediction…
Selective classification enables models to make predictions only when they are sufficiently confident, aiming to enhance safety and reliability, which is important in high-stakes scenarios. Previous methods mainly use deep neural networks…
Conformal prediction has emerged as a widely used framework for constructing valid prediction sets in classification and regression tasks. In this work, we extend the split conformal prediction framework to hierarchical classification,…
Deploying trustworthy AI systems requires principled uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used framework for constructing prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees. In many practical settings,…
Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning with self-consistency improves performance by aggregating multiple sampled reasoning paths. In this setting, correctness is no longer tied to a single reasoning trace but to the aggregation rule over a pool…
Conformal prediction is often calibrated with a single pooled threshold, but this can hide cross-group heterogeneity in score distributions and distort group-wise coverage. We study this phenomenon through the population score distributions…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…
Conformal Prediction (CP) provides distribution-free uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets that guarantee coverage of the true labels. This reliability makes CP valuable for high-stakes federated learning scenarios such…
If you are predicting the label $y$ of a new object with $\hat y$, how confident are you that $y = \hat y$? Conformal prediction methods provide an elegant framework for answering such question by building a $100 (1 - \alpha)\%$ confidence…
Ordinal classification has been widely applied in many high-stakes applications, e.g., medical imaging and diagnosis, where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for decision making. Conformal prediction (CP) is a general UQ…
Conformal prediction delivers prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage, but its intervals can look overconfident in regions where the model is extrapolating, because standard conformal scores do not explicitly represent…
Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…
Conformal prediction provides rigorous distribution-free finite-sample guarantees for marginal coverage under the assumption of exchangeability, but may exhibit systematic undercoverage or overcoverage for specific subpopulations. Assessing…
We revisit the problem of constructing predictive confidence sets for which we wish to obtain some type of conditional validity. We provide new arguments showing how ``split conformal'' methods achieve near desired coverage levels with high…
Conformal prediction provides prediction sets with coverage guarantees. The informativeness of conformal prediction depends on its efficiency, typically quantified by the expected size of the prediction set. Prior work on the efficiency of…
We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…
Conformal inference has played a pivotal role in providing uncertainty quantification for black-box ML prediction algorithms with finite sample guarantees. Traditionally, conformal prediction inference requires a data-independent…
Conformal prediction is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling…