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We propose a reduced-form benchmark predictive model (BPM) for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. We visually detail the evolution of…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-04 Francis X. Diebold , Maximilian Gobel

Urban Building Energy Modeling (UBEM) is an emerging method to investigate urban design and energy systems against the increasing energy demand at urban and neighborhood levels. However, current UBEM methods are mostly physic-based and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-06 Ting-Yu Dai , Dev Niyogi , Zoltan Nagy

We describe a new version (numbered 3.1) of NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) in which we extend the model to handle locations that lie more than a few degrees in latitude off the ecliptic plane. We provide our algorithms for…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2025-12-11 Althea V. Moorhead , Petr Pokorný , Marcus A. Holden , William Kosmann

We forecast the detectability of the lensing footprint of a collapsing cosmic texture, a topological defect proposed as an explanation of the CMB Cold Spot. Our pipeline is a quadratic, template-amplitude estimator for localized,…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-08 Pedro da Silveira Ferreira , Stephen Owusu

Microlensing can access planet populations that no other method can probe: cold wide-orbit planets beyond the snow line, planets in both the Galactic bulge and disk, and free floating planets (FFPs). The demographics of each population will…

Line Intensity Mapping (LIM) is a new observational technique that uses low-resolution observations of line emission to efficiently trace the large-scale structure of the Universe out to high redshift. Common mm/sub-mm emission lines are…

Effective Field Theory (EFT) modeling is expected to be a useful tool in the era of future higher-redshift galaxy surveys such as DESI-II and Spec-S5 due to its robust description of various large-scale structure tracers. However, large…

The STAR Collaboration and the CBM Collaboration institutions: Heidelberg, Darmstadt, CCNU, Tsinghua, and USTC propose to install an end-cap time-of-flight upgrade (eTOF) to the STAR detector for the RHIC beam energy scan phase II (BES-II)…

Nuclear Experiment · Physics 2016-09-19 The STAR Collaboration , The CBM Collaboration eTOF Group

This paper presents a version of the HEXTOR energy balance model that has been configured for the study of habitable terrestrial planets orbiting low-mass stars. The model is validated for rapidly-rotating Earth-like planets using…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-11 Jacob Haqq-Misra

NASA's Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) mission seeks to use spaceborne imaging spectroscopy (hyperspectral imaging) to map the mineralogy of arid dust source regions. Here we apply recent developments in Joint…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-03-10 Daniel Sousa , Christopher Small

Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-05-26 Mark S. Williamson , Chad W. Thackeray , Peter M. Cox , Alex Hall , Chris Huntingford , Femke J. M. M. Nijsse

Earth's temperature variability can be partitioned into internal and externally-forced components. Yet, underlying mechanisms and their relative contributions remain insufficiently understood, especially on decadal to centennial timescales.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-02-01 Maybritt Schillinger , Beatrice Ellerhoff , Robert Scheichl , Kira Rehfeld

Numerical models are widely used to simulate the earth system, but they are computationally expensive and often depend on many uncertain input parameters. Their effective use requires calibration and uncertainty quantification, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-06 Tristan Contant , Yawen Guan , Ander Wilson , Adrian K. Turner , Deborah Sulsky

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of the CMIP6 global circulation models (GCMs) varies from 1.83 {\deg}C to 5.67 {\deg}C. Herein, 38 GCMs are grouped into three ECS classes (low, 1.80-3.00 {\deg}C; medium, 3.01-4.50 {\deg}C; high,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-03-30 Nicola Scafetta

Line-Intensity Mapping (LIM) has emerged as a powerful technique for studying large-scale structure and the high-redshift universe, enabling three-dimensional maps of line emission across vast cosmological volumes. In this review, we…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-02-04 Tzu-Ching Chang , Adam Lidz

Temperate terrestrial exoplanets are likely common objects, but their discovery and characterization is very challenging. Concepts for optimized space missions to overcome these challenges are being studied. The LIFE initiative focuses on…

Line intensity mapping (LIM) is an emerging observational method to study the large-scale structure of the Universe and its evolution. LIM does not resolve individual sources but probes the fluctuations of integrated line emissions. A…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2020-06-03 Kana Moriwaki , Nina Filippova , Masato Shirasaki , Naoki Yoshida

A new finite element method (FEM) using meshes that do not necessarily align with the interface is developed for two- and three-dimensional anisotropic elliptic interface problems with nonhomogeneous jump conditions. The degrees of freedom…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-05-20 Haifeng Ji , Zhilin Li