Related papers: Simulating Keystroke and Computing the Theoretical…
We prove that a random automaton with $n$ states and any fixed non-singleton alphabet is synchronizing with high probability (modulo an unpublished result about unique highest trees of random graphs). Moreover, we also prove that the…
Based on data from a large-scale experiment with human subjects, we conclude that the logarithm of probability to guess a word in context (unpredictability) depends linearly on the word length. This result holds both for poetry and prose,…
In this paper we develop the elements of the theory of algorithmic randomness in continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs). Our main contribution is a rigorous, useful notion of what it means for an individual trajectory of a CTMC to be random.…
Given a collection of strings, each with an associated probability of occurrence, the guesswork of each of them is their position in a list ordered from most likely to least likely, breaking ties arbitrarily. Guesswork is central to several…
Bond rating Transition Probability Matrices (TPMs) are built over a one-year time-frame and for many practical purposes, like the assessment of risk in portfolios or the computation of banking Capital Requirements (e.g. the new IFRS 9…
A synchronizing word for an automaton is a word that brings that automaton into one and the same state, regardless of the starting position. Cerny conjectured in 1964 that if a n-state deterministic automaton has a synchronizing word, then…
The monitoring of event frequencies can be used to recognize behavioral anomalies, to identify trends, and to deduce or discard hypotheses about the underlying system. For example, the performance of a web server may be monitored based on…
Suppose that $\mathcal C$ is a finite collection of patterns. Observe a Markov chain until one of the patterns in $\mathcal C$ occurs as a run. This time is denoted by $\tau$. In this paper, we aim to give an easy way to calculate the mean…
Numerous capability and safety techniques of Large Language Models (LLMs), including RLHF, automated red-teaming, prompt engineering, and infilling, can be cast as sampling from an unnormalized target distribution defined by a given reward…
Let g : $\Omega$ = [0, 1] d $\rightarrow$ R denote a Lipschitz function that can be evaluated at each point, but at the price of a heavy computational time. Let X stand for a random variable with values in $\Omega$ such that one is able to…
The notion of probability plays an important role in almost all areas of science and technology. In modern mathematics, however, probability theory means nothing other than measure theory, and the operational characterization of the notion…
A standard measure of the influence of a research paper is the number of times it is cited. However, papers may be cited for many reasons, and citation count offers limited information about the extent to which a paper affected the content…
Monte Carlo algorithms simulate some prescribed number of samples, taking some random real time to complete the computations necessary. This work considers the converse: to impose a real-time budget on the computation, which results in the…
We consider a Markov chain that iteratively generates a sequence of random finite words in such a way that the $n^{\mathrm{th}}$ word is uniformly distributed over the set of words of length $2n$ in which $n$ letters are $a$ and $n$ letters…
We present a simple randomized procedure for the prediction of a binary sequence. The algorithm uses ideas from recent developments of the theory of the prediction of individual sequences. We show that if the sequence is a realization of a…
Assume that letters (from a finite alphabet) in a text form a Markov chain. We track two distinct words, $U$ and $D$. A gambler gains 1 point for each occurrence of $U$ (including overlapping occurrences) and loses 1 point for each…
The paper addresses the problem of computing maximal expected time to termination of probabilistic timed automata (PTA) models, under the condition that the system will, eventually, terminate. This problem can exhibit high computational…
In this work we explore the ability of the Google search engine to find results for random N-letter strings. These random strings, dense over the set of possible N-letter words, address the existence of typos, acronyms, and other words…
We study the problem of generating a sample from the stationary distribution of a Markov chain, given a method to simulate the chain. We give an approximation algorithm for the case of a random walk on a regular graph with n vertices that…
We consider the problem of computing the value and an optimal strategy for minimizing the expected termination time in one-counter Markov decision processes. Since the value may be irrational and an optimal strategy may be rather…