English
Related papers

Related papers: Who Moved My Distribution? Conformal Prediction fo…

200 papers

In multi-modal multi-agent trajectory forecasting, two major challenges have not been fully tackled: 1) how to measure the uncertainty brought by the interaction module that causes correlations among the predicted trajectories of multiple…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-12 Bohan Tang , Yiqi Zhong , Chenxin Xu , Wei-Tao Wu , Ulrich Neumann , Yanfeng Wang , Ya Zhang , Siheng Chen

Active-passive multiagent systems consist of agents subject to inputs (active agents) and agents with no inputs (passive agents), where active and passive agent roles are considered to be interchangeable in order to capture a wide array of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-10-07 Ehsan Arabi , Dimitra Panagou , Tansel Yucelen

Multi-agent systems often operate under feedback, adaptation, and non-stationarity, yet many simulation studies retain static decision rules and fixed control parameters. This paper introduces a general adaptive multi-agent learning…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2025-11-26 Roberto Garrone

This paper proposes an interaction and safety-aware motion-planning method for an autonomous vehicle in uncertain multi-vehicle traffic environments. The method integrates the ability of the interaction-aware interacting multiple model…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-14 Jian Zhou , Björn Olofsson , Erik Frisk

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free and model-agnostic uncertainty-quantification method that provides finite-sample prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. In this work, for the first time, we apply conformal-prediction to…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2026-02-02 Habib Yousefi Dezdarani , Ryan Curry , Alexandros Gezerlis

Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Olivier C. Pasche , Henry Lam , Sebastian Engelke

In this note, the problem of simultaneous leader-following consensus and parameter estimation is studied for a class of multi-agent systems subject to an uncertain leader system. The leader system is described by a sum of sinusoids with…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-07-28 Shimin Wang , Xiangyu Meng

The ability to accurately predict others' behavior is central to the safety and efficiency of interactive robotics. Unfortunately, robots often lack access to key information on which these predictions may hinge, such as other agents'…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-11-02 Haimin Hu , David Isele , Sangjae Bae , Jaime F. Fisac

Safe navigation in dynamic environments remains challenging due to uncertain obstacle behaviors and the lack of formal prediction guarantees. We propose two motion planning frameworks that leverage conformal prediction (CP): a global…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Kaier Liang , Licheng Luo , Yixuan Wang , Mingyu Cai , Cristian Ioan Vasile

Interactive decision-making is essential in applications such as autonomous driving, where the agent must infer the behavior of nearby human drivers while planning in real-time. Traditional predict-then-act frameworks are often insufficient…

Methods to quantify uncertainty in predictions from arbitrary models are in demand in high-stakes domains like medicine and finance. Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular method for producing a set of predictions with specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Jessica Hullman , Yifan Wu , Dawei Xie , Ziyang Guo , Andrew Gelman

A distributed adaptive control strategy is developed for heterogeneous multiagent systems in nonlinear Brunovsky form with \({\pd}\)-dimensional $n^{\text{th}}$-order dynamics, operating under time-triggered switching communication…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-10 Armel Koulong , Ali Pakniyat

We introduce Conformal Decision Theory, a framework for producing safe autonomous decisions despite imperfect machine learning predictions. Examples of such decisions are ubiquitous, from robot planning algorithms that rely on pedestrian…

Multi-agent interacting systems are prevalent in the world, from pure physical systems to complicated social dynamic systems. In many applications, effective understanding of the situation and accurate trajectory prediction of interactive…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-10-23 Jiachen Li , Fan Yang , Masayoshi Tomizuka , Chiho Choi

Conformal prediction offers a practical framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification, providing finite-sample coverage guarantees under relatively mild assumptions on data exchangeability. However, these assumptions cease to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-25 Derck W. E. Prinzhorn , Thijmen Nijdam , Putri A. van der Linden , Alexander Timans

Interest has been growing in decision-focused machine learning methods which train models to account for how their predictions are used in downstream optimization problems. Doing so can often improve performance on subsequent decision…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-03 Santiago Cortes-Gomez , Carlos Patiño , Yewon Byun , Steven Wu , Eric Horvitz , Bryan Wilder

Distribution-free prediction sets play a pivotal role in uncertainty quantification for complex statistical models. Their validity hinges on reliable calibration data, which may not be readily available as real-world environments often…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-11 Elise Han , Chengpiao Huang , Kaizheng Wang

Forecasting surgical instrument trajectories and predicting the next surgical action recently started to attract attention from the research community. Both these tasks are crucial for automation and assistance in endoscopy surgery. Given…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-13 Sara Sangalli , Gary Sarwin , Ertunc Erdil , Alessandro Carretta , Victor Staartjes , Carlo Serra , Ender Konukoglu

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification via prediction sets with exact finite-sample coverage. In low dimensions these sets are easy to interpret, but in high-dimensional or structured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Trevor Harris

Conformal prediction is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Ping Wang , Zhong Ji , Xiaojun Yang , Hongyue Li