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Most work in causal inference considers deterministic interventions that set each unit's treatment to some fixed value. However, under positivity violations these interventions can lead to non-identification, inefficiency, and effects with…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-20 Edward H. Kennedy

Causal inference methods are widely applied in various decision-making domains such as precision medicine, optimal policy and economics. Central to these applications is the treatment effect estimation of intervention strategies. Current…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-28 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu

Predictive risk scores estimating probabilities for a binary outcome on the basis of observed covariates are common across the sciences. They are frequently developed with the intent of avoiding the outcome in question by intervening in…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-26 James Liley

In most real-world systems units are interconnected and can be represented as networks consisting of nodes and edges. For instance, in social systems individuals can have social ties, family or financial relationships. In settings where…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-31 Laura Forastiere , Fabrizia Mealli , Albert Wu , Edoardo Airoldi

Recent methodological research in causal inference has focused on effects of stochastic interventions, which assign treatment randomly, often according to subject-specific covariates. In this work, we demonstrate that the usual notion of…

In this chapter, we review the class of causal effects based on incremental propensity scores interventions proposed by Kennedy [2019]. The aim of incremental propensity score interventions is to estimate the effect of increasing or…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-22 Matteo Bonvini , Alec McClean , Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy

Many policy evaluations using instrumental variable (IV) methods include individuals who interact with each other, potentially violating the standard IV assumptions. This paper defines and partially identifies direct and spillover effects…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-17 Didier Nibbering , Matthijs Oosterveen

In the context of having an instrumental variable, the standard practice in causal inference begins by targeting an effect of interest and proceeds by formulating assumptions enabling its identification. We turn this around by adhering to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-25 Carlos García Meixide , Mark J. van der Laan

Causal inference methods are widely applied in various decision-making domains such as precision medicine, optimal policy and economics. Central to causal inference is the treatment effect estimation of intervention strategies, such as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-31 Tri Dung Duong , Qian Li , Guandong Xu

Interference occurs when a unit's treatment (or exposure) affects another unit's outcome. In some settings, units may be grouped into clusters such that it is reasonable to assume that interference, if present, only occurs between…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-24 Chanhwa Lee , Donglin Zeng , Michael G. Hudgens

Policy learning utilizing observational data is pivotal across various domains, with the objective of learning the optimal treatment assignment policy while adhering to specific constraints such as fairness, budget, and simplicity. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-12 Pan Zhao , Antoine Chambaz , Julie Josse , Shu Yang

Causal mediation analysis has historically been limited in two important ways: (i) a focus has traditionally been placed on binary treatments and static interventions, and (ii) direct and indirect effect decompositions have been pursued…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-13 Nima S. Hejazi , Kara E. Rudolph , Mark J. van der Laan , Iván Díaz

In this paper, we propose a propensity score adapted variable selection procedure to select covariates for inclusion in propensity score models, in order to eliminate confounding bias and improve statistical efficiency in observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-14 Kangjie Zhou , Jinzhu Jia

This work develops a flexible inferential framework for nonparametric causal inference in time-to-event settings, based on stochastic interventions defined through multiplicative scaling of the intensity governing an intermediate event…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Helene Charlotte Wiese Rytgaard , Mark van der Laan

Causal inference is crucial for understanding the true impact of interventions, policies, or actions, enabling informed decision-making and providing insights into the underlying mechanisms that shape our world. In this paper, we establish…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-26 Jingyue Huang , Changbao Wu , Leilei Zeng

A treatment policy defines when and what treatments are applied to affect some outcome of interest. Data-driven decision-making requires the ability to predict what happens if a policy is changed. Existing methods that predict how the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-21 Çağlar Hızlı , ST John , Anne Juuti , Tuure Saarinen , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

Estimation and evaluation of individualized treatment rules have been studied extensively, but real-world treatment resource constraints have received limited attention in existing methods. We investigate a setting in which treatment is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-24 Hongxiang Qiu , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke

Sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding under incremental propensity score interventions remains relatively underdeveloped. Incremental interventions define stochastic treatment regimes by multiplying the odds of treatment, offering…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Shuying Shen , Valerio Bacak , Edward H. Kennedy

We consider the problem of defining the effect of an intervention on a time-varying risk factor or treatment for a disease or a physiological marker; we develop here the latter case. So, the system considered is $(Y,A,C)$, where $Y=(Y_t)$,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-31 Daniel Commenges , Mélanie Prague

Estimands using the treatment policy strategy for addressing intercurrent events are common in Phase III clinical trials. One estimation approach for this strategy is retrieved dropout whereby observed data following an intercurrent event…

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