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In this paper, we introduce the notion of Gaussian processes indexed by probability density functions for extending the Mat\'ern family of covariance functions. We use some tools from information geometry to improve the efficiency and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-09 A. Fradi , Y. Feunteun , C. Samir , M. Baklouti , F. Bachoc , J-M. Loubes

The combination of inducing point methods with stochastic variational inference has enabled approximate Gaussian Process (GP) inference on large datasets. Unfortunately, the resulting predictive distributions often exhibit substantially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-29 Martin Jankowiak , Geoff Pleiss , Jacob R. Gardner

This work is concerned with the convergence of Gaussian process regression. A particular focus is on hierarchical Gaussian process regression, where hyper-parameters appearing in the mean and covariance structure of the Gaussian process…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-07-20 Aretha L Teckentrup

A new methodology for model determination in decomposable graphical Gaussian models is developed. The Bayesian paradigm is used and, for each given graph, a hyper inverse Wishart prior distribution on the covariance matrix is considered.…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-13 Sophie Donnet , Jean-Michel Marin

Variational inference techniques based on inducing variables provide an elegant framework for scalable posterior estimation in Gaussian process (GP) models. Besides enabling scalability, one of their main advantages over sparse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-24 Simone Rossi , Markus Heinonen , Edwin V. Bonilla , Zheyang Shen , Maurizio Filippone

The Gaussian process (GP) regression model is a widely employed surrogate modeling technique for computer experiments, offering precise predictions and statistical inference for the computer simulators that generate experimental data.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-02 Lulu Kang , Yuanxing Cheng , Yiwei Wang , Chun Liu

Automatic forecasting is the task of receiving a time series and returning a forecast for the next time steps without any human intervention. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for modeling time series, but so far there are no…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-27 Giorgio Corani , Alessio Benavoli , Marco Zaffalon

Computer models are widely used in science and engineering to simulate complex systems. However, these models are affected by several sources of uncertainty, which may limit their use for decision making in risk management. We present a…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-17 Oumar Baldé , Guillaume Damblin , Amandine Marrel , Antoine Bouloré , Loïc Giraldi

This paper presents a unified treatment of Gaussian process models that extends to data from the exponential dispersion family and to survival data. Our specific interest is in the analysis of data sets with predictors that have an a priori…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-06-17 Terrance Savitsky , Marina Vannucci , Naijun Sha

Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful and widely used probabilistic regression models, but their effectiveness in practice is often limited by the choice of kernel function. This kernel function is typically handcrafted from a small set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Jihao Andreas Lin , Sebastian Ament , Louis C. Tiao , David Eriksson , Maximilian Balandat , Eytan Bakshy

Examples with bound information on the regression function and density abound in many real applications. We propose a novel approach for estimating such functions by incorporating the prior knowledge on the bounds. Specially, a Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-30 Jize Zhang , Lizhen Lin

Many common correlation structures assumed for data can be described through latent Gaussian models. When Bayesian inference is carried out, it is required to set the prior distribution for scale parameters that rules the model components,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-10 Aldo Gardini , Fedele Greco , Carlo Trivisano

In Bayesian nonparametric models, Gaussian processes provide a popular prior choice for regression function estimation. Existing literature on the theoretical investigation of the resulting posterior distribution almost exclusively assume a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-06 Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya , Guang Cheng

The behavior of many Bayesian models used in machine learning critically depends on the choice of prior distributions, controlled by some hyperparameters that are typically selected by Bayesian optimization or cross-validation. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-09 Eliezer de Souza da Silva , Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Marcelo Hartmann , Arto Klami

Gaussian process regression is a popular method for non-parametric probabilistic modeling of functions. The Gaussian process prior is characterized by so-called hyperparameters, which often have a large influence on the posterior model and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-18 Andreas Svensson , Johan Dahlin , Thomas B. Schön

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a class of Kernel methods that have shown to be very useful in geoscience and remote sensing applications for parameter retrieval, model inversion, and emulation. They are widely used because they are simple,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-21 J. Emmanuel Johnson , Valero Laparra , Gustau Camps-Valls

Gaussian process regression is a powerful method for predicting states based on given data. It has been successfully applied for probabilistic predictions of structural systems to quantify, for example, the crack growth in mechanical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-20 Simon Pfingstl , Markus Zimmermann

Sparse variational Gaussian processes (GPs) construct tractable posterior approximations to GP models. At the core of these methods is the assumption that the true posterior distribution over training function values ${\bf f}$ and inducing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-27 Michalis K. Titsias

The Gaussian process (GP) model, which has been extensively applied as priors of functions, has demonstrated excellent performance. The specification of a large number of parameters affects the computational efficiency and the feasibility…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-13 Shisheng Cui , Chia-Jung Chang

The kernel function and its hyperparameters are the central model selection choice in a Gaussian proces (Rasmussen and Williams, 2006). Typically, the hyperparameters of the kernel are chosen by maximising the marginal likelihood, an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-07 Vidhi Lalchand , Wessel P. Bruinsma , David R. Burt , Carl E. Rasmussen