Related papers: Differentiable Filtering for Learning Hidden Marko…
Traditional hidden Markov models have been a useful tool to understand and model stochastic dynamic data; in the case of non-Gaussian data, models such as mixture of Gaussian hidden Markov models can be used. However, these suffer from the…
Stochastic volatility models are the backbone of financial engineering. We study both continuous time diffusions as well as discrete time models. We propose two novel approaches to estimating stochastic volatility diffusions, one using…
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for prediction- and information extraction tasks with an efficient inference scheme. It models categorical-valued time series that exhibit dynamics from multiple underlying patterns (e.g.…
Background: Baum-Welch training is an expectation-maximisation algorithm for training the emission and transition probabilities of hidden Markov models in a fully automated way. Methods and results: We introduce a linear space algorithm for…
With the symbolic framework of Probability Bracket Notation (PBN), the Markov Sequence Projector (MSP) is introduced to expand the evolution formula of Homogeneous Markov Chains (HMCs). The well-known weather example, a Visible Markov Model…
In this paper, a level-wise mixture model (LMM) is developed by embedding visual hierarchy with deep networks to support large-scale visual recognition (i.e., recognizing thousands or even tens of thousands of object classes), and a…
The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) can predict the future value of a time series based on its current and previous values, making it a powerful algorithm for handling various types of time series. Numerous studies have explored the improvement…
Hidden Markov Models, HMM's, are mathematical models of Markov processes with state that is hidden, but from which information can leak. They are typically represented as 3-way joint-probability distributions. We use HMM's as denotations of…
Nature, as far as we know, evolves continuously through space and time. Yet the ubiquitous hidden Markov model (HMM)--originally developed for discrete time and space analysis in natural language processing--remains a central tool in…
Likelihood-free inference methods based on neural conditional density estimation were shown to drastically reduce the simulation burden in comparison to classical methods such as ABC. When applied in the context of any latent variable…
This work attempts to approximate a linear Gaussian system with a finite-state hidden Markov model (HMM), which is found useful in solving sophisticated event-based state estimation problems. An indirect modeling approach is developed,…
Regime-switching models, in particular Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) where the switching is driven by an unobservable Markov chain, are widely-used in financial applications, due to their tractability and good econometric properties. In this…
We consider the filtering of continuous-time finite-state hidden Markov models, where the rate and observation matrices depend on unknown time-dependent parameters, for which no prior or stochastic model is available. We quantify and…
The objective of this article is to study the asymptotic behavior of a new particle filtering approach in the context of hidden Markov models (HMMs). In particular, we develop an algorithm where the latent-state sequence is segmented into…
In unsupervised classification, Hidden Markov Models (HMM) are used to account for a neighborhood structure between observations. The emission distributions are often supposed to belong to some parametric family. In this paper, a…
Motivated by high-throughput single-cell cytometry data with applications to vaccine development and immunological research, we consider statistical clustering in large-scale data that contain multiple rare clusters. We propose a new…
We address the multiple testing problem under the assumption that the true/false hypotheses are driven by a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), which is recognized as a fundamental setting to model multiple testing under dependence since the seminal…
Hidden Markov Chains (HMCs) are commonly used mathematical models of probabilistic systems. They are employed in various fields such as speech recognition, signal processing, and biological sequence analysis. We consider the problem of…
Understanding the reasons for the success of deep neural networks trained using stochastic gradient-based methods is a key open problem for the nascent theory of deep learning. The types of data where these networks are most successful,…
The impact of randomness on model training is poorly understood. How do differences in data order and initialization actually manifest in the model, such that some training runs outperform others or converge faster? Furthermore, how can we…