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We propose a society-first theory of normative appropriateness where individuals, modeled as pre-trained actors with cognitive architectures analogous to Large Language Models (LLMs), generate behavior via predictive pattern completion. Our…

Incentives have surprisingly inconsistent effects when it comes to encouraging people to behave prosocially. Classical economic theory, according to which a specific behavior becomes more prevalent when it is rewarded, struggles to explain…

General Economics · Economics 2021-04-29 Caroline Graf , Eva-Maria Merz , Bianca Suanet , Pamala Wiepking

The spreading dynamics of an epidemic and the collective behavioral pattern of the population over which it spreads are deeply intertwined and the latter can critically shape the outcome of the former. Motivated by this, we design a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-08-25 Mengbin Ye , Lorenzo Zino , Alessandro Rizzo , Ming Cao

In this tutorial article, we give an overview of new challenges and representative results on distributed no-regret learning in multi-agent systems modeled as repeated unknown games. Four emerging game characteristics---dynamicity,…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2020-02-24 Xiao Xu , Qing Zhao

Reverse causality is a common causal misperception that distorts the evaluation of private actions and public policies. This paper explores the implications of this error when a decision maker acts on it and therefore affects the very…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-10-26 Ran Spiegler

We present a study on a repeated delegated choice problem, which is the first to consider an online learning variant of Kleinberg and Kleinberg, EC'18. In this model, a principal interacts repeatedly with an agent who possesses an exogenous…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-02-15 MohammadTaghi Hajiaghayi , Mohammad Mahdavi , Keivan Rezaei , Suho Shin

Cooperative behavior in real social dilemmas is often perceived as a phenomenon emerging from norms and punishment. To overcome this paradigm, we highlight the interplay between the influence of social networks on individuals, and the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-07-23 Dario Madeo , Chiara Mocenni

Understanding how people form and revise their perception of risk is central to designing efficient risk communication methods, eliciting risk awareness, and avoiding unnecessary anxiety among the public. However, public responses to…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-04-22 Mehdi Moussaid , Henry Brighton , Wolfgang Gaissmaier

Optimization models used to make discrete decisions often contain uncertain parameters that are context-dependent and estimated through prediction. To account for the quality of the decision made based on the prediction, decision-focused…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-30 Noah Schutte , Krzysztof Postek , Neil Yorke-Smith

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic game-theoretic model to study the properties of the worst-case regret of the greedy strategy under complete (Knightian) uncertainty. In a game between a decision-maker (DM) and an adversarial agent…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Kristijan Atanasov , Mehmet Ismail , Frederik Mallmann-Trenn

The quintessential model-based reinforcement-learning agent iteratively refines its estimates or prior beliefs about the true underlying model of the environment. Recent empirical successes in model-based reinforcement learning with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-02 Dilip Arumugam , Benjamin Van Roy

Changes in human behavior are increasingly recognized as a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Although collective activity can be modified through imposed measures to control epidemic progression, spontaneous changes can also arise as…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-25 Susanna Manrubia , Damián H. Zanette

Threshold policies are decision rules that assign treatments based on whether an observable characteristic exceeds a certain threshold. They are widespread across multiple domains, including welfare programs, taxation, and clinical…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-08 Federico Crippa

Agents often have individual goals which depend on a group's actions. If agents trust a forecast of collective action and adapt strategically, such prediction can influence outcomes non-trivially, resulting in a form of performative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 António Góis , Mehrnaz Mofakhami , Fernando P. Santos , Gauthier Gidel , Simon Lacoste-Julien

Behavioral theories rest on parsimony: a small number of mechanisms organizing many decisions. We define a Maximum Rule Concentration Index that measures how parsimoniously a dataset of risky choices can be organized through a library of…

General Economics · Economics 2026-05-29 Avner Seror

We present a cognitive model of opinion dynamics which studies the behavior of a population of interacting individuals in the context of risk of natural disaster. In particular, we investigate the response of the individuals to the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-11-16 Daniele Vilone , Francesca Giardini , Mario Paolucci , Rosaria Conte

We consider decision-making problems involving the optimization of linear objective functions with uncertain coefficients. The probability distribution of the coefficients--which are assumed to be stochastic in nature--is unknown to the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-12-23 Eilyan Bitar

We consider the multi-armed bandit setting with a twist. Rather than having just one decision maker deciding which arm to pull in each round, we have $n$ different decision makers (agents). In the simple stochastic setting, we show that a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-07 Christopher Jung , Sampath Kannan , Neil Lutz

Methods for learning optimal policies in autonomous agents often assume that the way the domain is conceptualised---its possible states and actions and their causal structure---is known in advance and does not change during learning. This…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-01-11 Craig Innes , Alex Lascarides , Stefano V Albrecht , Subramanian Ramamoorthy , Benjamin Rosman

We focus on how individual behavior that complies with social norms interferes with performance-based incentive mechanisms in organizations with multiple distributed decision-making agents. We model social norms to emerge from interactions…

General Economics · Economics 2021-02-25 Ravshanbek Khodzhimatov , Stephan Leitner , Friederike Wall