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Clinical study populations often differ meaningfully from the broader populations to which results are intended to generalize. Weighting methods such as inverse probability of sampling weights (IPSW) reweight study participants to resemble…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 William Stewart , Carly L. Brantner , Elizabeth A. Stuart , Laine Thomas

The burden of diseases is rising worldwide, with unequal treatment efficacy for patient populations that are underrepresented in clinical trials. Healthcare, however, is driven by the average population effect of medical treatments and,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-08 Ghadeer O. Ghosheh , Moritz Gögl , Tingting Zhu

An important aspect of the performance of algorithms that predict individualized treatment effects (ITE) is moderate calibration, i.e., the average treatment effect among individuals with predicted treatment effect of z being equal to z.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Mohsen Sadatsafavi , Jeroen Hoogland , Thomas P. A. Debray , John Petkau

Inferring causal individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data is a challenging problem whose difficulty is exacerbated by the presence of treatment assignment bias. In this work, we propose a new way to estimate the ITE using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Abhin Shah , Kartik Ahuja , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Dennis Wei , Kush Varshney , Amit Dhurandhar

Individual treatment effect (ITE) is often regarded as the ideal target of inference in causal analyses and has been the focus of several recent studies. In this paper, we describe the intrinsic limits regarding what can be learned…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-10 Zhehao Zhang , Thomas S. Richardson

Heterogeneous treatment effects, which vary according to individual covariates, are crucial in fields such as personalized medicine and tailored treatment strategies. In many applications, rather than considering the heterogeneity induced…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Peng Wu , Pengtao Zeng , Zhaoqing Tian , Shaojie Wei

Heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) are increasingly estimated using machine learning models that produce highly personalized predictions of treatment effects. In practice, however, predicted treatment effects are rarely interpreted,…

While average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) provide valuable population- and subgroup-level summaries, they fail to capture uncertainty at the individual level. For high-stakes decision-making,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Juraj Bodik , Yaxuan Huang , Bin Yu

Analyses of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) are common in applied causal inference research. However, when outcomes are latent variables assessed via psychometric instruments such as educational tests, standard methods ignore the…

The ability to predict individualized treatment effects (ITEs) based on a given patient's profile is essential for personalized medicine. We propose a hypothesis testing approach to choosing between two potential treatments for a given…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-11 Tianxi Cai , Tony Cai , Zijian Guo

Machine learning can help personalized decision support by learning models to predict individual treatment effects (ITE). This work studies the reliability of prediction-based decision-making in a task of deciding which action $a$ to take…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-07 Iiris Sundin , Peter Schulam , Eero Siivola , Aki Vehtari , Suchi Saria , Samuel Kaski

This paper estimates individual treatment effects in a triangular model with binary--valued endogenous treatments. Following the identification strategy established in Vuong and Xu (2014), we propose a two--stage estimation approach. First,…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-28 Qian Feng , Quang Vuong , Haiqing Xu

Estimating individual level treatment effects (ITE) from observational data is a challenging and important area in causal machine learning and is commonly considered in diverse mission-critical applications. In this paper, we propose an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-10 Sungyub Kim , Yongsu Baek , Sung Ju Hwang , Eunho Yang

Existing EEG recognition models suffer from poor cross-paradigm generalization due to dataset-specific constraints and individual variability. To overcome these limitations, we propose BITE (Bidirectional Time-Freq Pyramid Network), an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Jiahui Hong , Siqing Li , Muqing Jian , Luming Yang

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and generalizing them to broader populations is essential for personalizing treatment rules but is complicated by selection bias due to trial…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-15 Rikuta Hamaya , Etsuji Suzuki , Konan Hara

Subgroup analysis of treatment effects plays an important role in applications from medicine to public policy to recommender systems. It allows physicians (for example) to identify groups of patients for whom a given drug or treatment is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-20 Hyun-Suk Lee , Yao Zhang , William Zame , Cong Shen , Jang-Won Lee , Mihaela van der Schaar

Estimating the effects of interventions on patient outcome is one of the key aspects of personalized medicine. Their inference is often challenged by the fact that the training data comprises only the outcome for the administered treatment,…

Automatically discovering personalized trajectories (i.e., sequential event patterns) from longitudinal EHR data is crucial for enabling precision medicine in clinical research, yet it remains a formidable challenge even for contemporary AI…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Jia Li , Yu Hou , Rui Zhang

Estimating how a treatment affects units individually, known as heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation, is an essential part of decision-making and policy implementation. The accumulation of large amounts of data in many domains,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Christopher Tran , Elena Zheleva

Outcome estimation of treatments for target individuals is an important foundation for decision making based on causal relations. Most existing outcome estimation methods deal with binary or multiple-choice treatments; however, in some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-14 Shonosuke Harada , Hisashi Kashima