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While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 George Whittle , Juliusz Ziomek , Jacob Rawling , Maike A. Osborne

Variational inference (VI) provides fast approximations of a Bayesian posterior in part because it formulates posterior approximation as an optimization problem: to find the closest distribution to the exact posterior over some family of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-03 Fangjian Guo , Xiangyu Wang , Kai Fan , Tamara Broderick , David B. Dunson

Variational inference approximates the posterior distribution of a probabilistic model with a parameterized density by maximizing a lower bound for the model evidence. Modern solutions fit a flexible approximation with stochastic gradient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-13 Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

We empirically evaluate a stochastic annealing strategy for Bayesian posterior optimization with variational inference. Variational inference is a deterministic approach to approximate posterior inference in Bayesian models in which a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-05-26 San Gultekin , Aonan Zhang , John Paisley

Amortized inference allows latent-variable models trained via variational learning to scale to large datasets. The quality of approximate inference is determined by two factors: a) the capacity of the variational distribution to match the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-29 Chris Cremer , Xuechen Li , David Duvenaud

In this work, we focus on variational Bayesian inference on the sparse Deep Neural Network (DNN) modeled under a class of spike-and-slab priors. Given a pre-specified sparse DNN structure, the corresponding variational posterior contraction…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-04 Jincheng Bai , Qifan Song , Guang Cheng

A multivariate distribution can be described by a triangular transport map from the target distribution to a simple reference distribution. We propose Bayesian nonparametric inference on the transport map by modeling its components using…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-18 Matthias Katzfuss , Florian Schäfer

One of the fundamental problems in Bayesian statistics is the approximation of the posterior distribution. Gibbs sampler and coordinate ascent variational inference are renownedly utilized approximation techniques that rely on stochastic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-18 Se Yoon Lee

Stochastic variational inference offers an attractive option as a default method for differentiable probabilistic programming. However, the performance of the variational approach depends on the choice of an appropriate variational family.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-11 Luca Ambrogioni , Kate Lin , Emily Fertig , Sharad Vikram , Max Hinne , Dave Moore , Marcel van Gerven

We study system design problems stated as parameterized stochastic programs with a chance-constraint set. We adopt a Bayesian approach that requires the computation of a posterior predictive integral which is usually intractable. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-07 Prateek Jaiswal , Harsha Honnappa , Vinayak A. Rao

We consider statistical inference for impulse responses in sparse, structural high-dimensional vector autoregressive (SVAR) systems. We introduce consistent estimators of impulse responses in the high-dimensional setting and suggest valid…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-03 Jonas Krampe , Efstathios Paparoditis , Carsten Trenkler

A variation principle for mass transport in solids is derived that recasts transport coefficients as minima of local thermodynamic average quantities. The result is independent of diffusion mechanism, and applies to amorphous and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-12-05 Dallas R. Trinkle

We present a generative modeling approach based on the variational inference framework for likelihood-free simulation-based inference. The method leverages latent variables within variational autoencoders to efficiently estimate complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-20 Mayank Nautiyal , Andrey Shternshis , Andreas Hellander , Prashant Singh

We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-11 Alessandro Davide Ialongo , Mark van der Wilk , Carl Edward Rasmussen

Variational inference (VI) is a popular method for approximating intractable posterior distributions in Bayesian inference and probabilistic machine learning. In this paper, we introduce a general framework for quantifying the statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-18 Chenyang Zhong , Sumit Mukherjee , Bodhisattva Sen

Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-06 Nan Feng , Xun Huan

We propose a scalable variational Bayes method for statistical inference for a single or low-dimensional subset of the coordinates of a high-dimensional parameter in sparse linear regression. Our approach relies on assigning a mean-field…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-12 Ismaël Castillo , Alice L'Huillier , Kolyan Ray , Luke Travis

Variational inference has recently emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in large-scale Bayesian inference. The core idea is to trade statistical accuracy for computational efficiency. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-08 Kush Bhatia , Nikki Lijing Kuang , Yi-An Ma , Yixin Wang

Estimation of structure, such as in variable selection, graphical modelling or cluster analysis is notoriously difficult, especially for high-dimensional data. We introduce stability selection. It is based on subsampling in combination with…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-05-16 Nicolai Meinshausen , Peter Buehlmann

Recently, Stochastic Variational Inference (SVI) has been increasingly attractive thanks to its ability to find good posterior approximations of probabilistic models. It optimizes the variational objective with stochastic optimization,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-16 Minta Liu , Suliang Bu
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