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Financial markets are characterized by extreme non-stationarity, low signal-to-noise ratios, and strong dependence on external information such as news, company fundamentals, and macroeconomic signals. Yet, existing approaches either…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Jialin Chen , Aosong Feng , Harshit Verma , Siyi Gu , Haiwen Wang , Ali Maatouk , Yixuan He , Yifeng Gao , Leandros Tassiulas , Rex Ying

Standard decoding in Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) is hindered by context rigidity: tokens are retained based on transient high confidence, often ignoring that early predictions lack full context. This creates cascade effects where initial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-16 Kevin Zhai , Sabbir Mollah , Zhenyi Wang , Mubarak Shah

Effective financial reasoning demands not only textual understanding but also the ability to interpret complex visual data such as charts, tables, and trend graphs. This paper introduces a new benchmark designed to evaluate how well AI…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Shuangyan Deng , Haizhou Peng , Jiachen Xu , Chunhou Liu , Ciprian Doru Giurcuaneanu , Jiamou Liu

Using a large quarterly macroeconomic dataset for the period 1960-2017, we document the ability of specific financial ratios from the housing market and firms' aggregate balance sheets to predict GDP over medium-term horizons in the United…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-22 Graziano Moramarco

We propose a deep learning approach to probabilistic forecasting of macroeconomic and financial time series. Being able to learn complex patterns from a data rich environment, our approach is useful for a decision making that depends on…

General Economics · Economics 2022-04-15 Jozef Barunik , Lubos Hanus

Recently there has been a surge of interest in operations research (OR) and the machine learning (ML) community in combining prediction algorithms and optimization techniques to solve decision-making problems in the face of uncertainty.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-11 Utsav Sadana , Abhilash Chenreddy , Erick Delage , Alexandre Forel , Emma Frejinger , Thibaut Vidal

Methods for forecasting time series adhering to linear constraints have seen notable development in recent years, especially with the advent of forecast reconciliation. This paper extends forecast reconciliation to the open question of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Daniele Girolimetto , Anastasios Panagiotelis , Tommaso Di Fonzo , Han Li

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at single-turn tasks such as instruction following and summarization, yet real-world deployments require sustained multi-turn interactions where user goals and conversational context persist and evolve. A…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Vardhan Dongre , Ryan A. Rossi , Viet Dac Lai , David Seunghyun Yoon , Dilek Hakkani-Tür , Trung Bui

Macroeconomic nowcasting sits at the intersection of traditional econometrics, data-rich information systems, and AI applications in business, economics, and policy. Machine learning (ML) methods are increasingly used to nowcast quarterly…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-02 Luca Attolico

Information asymmetry in financial markets, often amplified by strategically crafted corporate narratives, undermines the effectiveness of conventional textual analysis. We propose a novel multimodal framework for financial risk assessment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-27 Xiaoliang Chen , Xin Yu , Le Chang , Teng Jing , Jiashuai He , Ze Wang , Yangjun Luo , Xingyu Chen , Jiayue Liang , Yuchen Wang , Jiaying Xie

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) plays a vital role in numerous real-world applications, yet existing models remain constrained by their reliance on a limited historical context. This limitation prevents them from effectively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Fanpu Cao , Lu Dai , Jindong Han , Hui Xiong

We consider a dynamic pricing problem for repeated contextual second-price auctions with multiple strategic buyers who aim to maximize their long-term time discounted utility. The seller has limited information on buyers' overall demand…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Negin Golrezaei , Patrick Jaillet , Jason Cheuk Nam Liang

Zero-shot forecasting aims to predict outcomes for previously unseen conditions without direct historical data, posing a significant challenge for traditional forecasting methods. We introduce a Resolution-Aware Retrieval-Augmented…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Iman Deznabi , Peeyush Kumar , Madalina Fiterau

The ubiquity of dynamic data in domains such as weather, healthcare, and energy underscores a growing need for effective interpretation and retrieval of time-series data. These data are inherently tied to domain-specific contexts, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Jialin Chen , Ziyu Zhao , Gaukhar Nurbek , Aosong Feng , Ali Maatouk , Leandros Tassiulas , Yifeng Gao , Rex Ying

Large language models are reshaping quantitative investing by turning unstructured financial information into evidence-grounded signals and executable decisions. This survey synthesizes research with a focus on equity return prediction and…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-08 Weilong Fu

Large Language Models (LLMs) and Foundation Models (FMs) have recently become prevalent for time series forecasting tasks. While fine-tuning LLMs enables domain adaptation, they often struggle to generalize across diverse and unseen…

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has become an essential approach for extending the reasoning and knowledge capacity of large language models (LLMs). While prior research has primarily focused on retrieval quality and prompting…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Jiamin Chen , Yuchen Li , Xinyu Ma , Xinran Chen , Xiaokun Zhang , Shuaiqiang Wang , Chen Ma , Dawei Yin

Editing Large language models (LLMs) with real-world, unstructured knowledge is essential for correcting and updating their internal parametric knowledge. In this work, we revisit the fundamental next-token prediction (NTP) as a candidate…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Zisheng Zhou , Mengqi Zhang , Shiguang Wu , Xiaotian Ye , Chi Zhang , Zhumin Chen , Pengjie Ren

Multimodal sentiment analysis relies on textual, acoustic, and visual signals, yet real-world data often suffer from modality missing and quality imbalance. Existing methods generate features for modality missing from available ones, but…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Chenglizhao Chen , Yuchen Cao , Xinyu Liu , Mengke Song , Guisheng Zhang , Xiaomin Yu

With the advent of technology and use of latest devices, they produces voluminous data. Out of it, 80% of the data are unstructured and remaining 20% are structured and semi-structured. The produced data are in heterogeneous format and…

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