Related papers: The Role of Deep Mesoscale Eddies in Ensemble Fore…
The oceans play a fundamental role in Earth's climate system, redistributing heat and influencing global and regional climate variability and predictability across weather and climate timescales. The benefits of ocean-atmosphere coupling…
Ocean mesoscale eddies can be thought of as the "weather" of the ocean and strongly influence the ocean's physics, chemistry, and biology; they influence other components of the Earth system via air-sea and sea-ice interactions, and are…
An Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) can provide valuable information on the analysis and short-range forecast uncertainties. The present ECMWF operational ocean analysis and reanalysis system, called ORAS5, produces an ensemble but does…
The global ocean overturning circulation, critically dependent on the global density stratification, plays a central role in regulating climate evolution. While it is well-known that the global stratification profile exhibits a strong…
Soil moisture conditions can influence the evolution of a tropical cyclone (TC) that is partially or completely over land. Hence, better constraining soil moisture initial conditions in a numerical weather prediction model can potentially…
Ensemble data assimilation in flood forecasting depends strongly on the density, frequency and statistics of errors associated with the observation network. This work focuses on the assimilation of 2D flood extent data, expressed in terms…
In-situ ocean wave observations are critical to improve model skill and validate remote sensing wave measurements. Historically, such observations are extremely sparse due to the large costs and complexity of traditional wave buoys and…
The space weather community has begun to use frontier methods such as data assimilation, machine learning, and ensemble modeling to advance current operational forecasting efforts. This was highlighted by a multi-disciplinary session at the…
Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is an important variable for forecasting severe weather and understanding deep convection and precipitation. The latest versions of the Global Forecast System (GFS) and related Global Ensemble…
In atmospheric and turbulent flow modeling, Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is often used to reduce computational cost, while observational data typically originates from the underlying physical system. Motivated by this setting, we study a…
Global climate change plays an essential role in our daily life. Mesoscale ocean eddies have a significant impact on global warming, since they affect the ocean dynamics, the energy as well as the mass transports of ocean circulation. From…
Estimating background-error covariances remains a core challenge in variational data assimilation (DA). Operational systems typically approximate these covariances by transformations that separate geostrophically balanced components from…
Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. This study explores an application of machine learning (ML) models…
Satellite observation operators play an essential role in atmospheric data assimilation by translating model state variables into observation space. Previous work has shown that deep-learned emulators can effectively predict the outputs of…
The forecast of tropical cyclone trajectories is crucial for the protection of people and property. Although forecast dynamical models can provide high-precision short-term forecasts, they are computationally demanding, and current…
Data assimilation procedures have been developed for thermospheric models using satellite density measurements as part of the EU Framework Package 7 ATMOP Project. Two models were studied; one a general circulation model, TIEGCM, and the…
Understanding the statistics of ocean geostrophic turbulence is of utmost importance in understanding its interactions with the global ocean circulation and the climate system as a whole. Here, a study of eddy-mixing entropy in a…
Quantifying uncertainty in weather forecasts is critical, especially for predicting extreme weather events. This is typically accomplished with ensemble prediction systems, which consist of many perturbed numerical weather simulations, or…
Weather forecasting is fundamentally challenged by the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, necessitating probabilistic approaches to quantify uncertainty. While traditional ensemble prediction (EPS) addresses this through computationally…
Research on data-driven ocean models has progressed rapidly in recent years; however, the application of these models to global eddy-resolving ocean forecasting remains limited. The accurate representation of ocean dynamics across a wide…