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Conformal prediction has become increasingly popular for quantifying the uncertainty associated with machine learning models. Recent work in graph uncertainty quantification has built upon this approach for conformal graph prediction. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Pranav Maneriker , Aditya T. Vadlamani , Anutam Srinivasan , Yuntian He , Ali Payani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Early outbreak detection is a key aspect in the containment of infectious diseases, as it enables the identification and isolation of infected individuals before the disease can spread to a larger population. Instead of detecting unexpected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-19 Michael Rapp , Moritz Kulessa , Eneldo Loza Mencía , Johannes Fürnkranz

To infer a diffusion network based on observations from historical diffusion processes, existing approaches assume that observation data contain exact occurrence time of each node infection, or at least the eventual infection statuses of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-12-14 Hao Huang , Qian Yan , Keqi Han , Ting Gan , Jiawei Jiang , Quanqing Xu , Chuanhui Yan

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

We study the problem of estimating the origin of an epidemic outbreak -- given a contact network and a snapshot of epidemic spread at a certain time, determine the infection source. Finding the source is important in different contexts of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-11-20 Andrey Y. Lokhov , Marc Mézard , Hiroki Ohta , Lenka Zdeborová

This paper studies the problem of locating multiple diffusion sources in networks with partial observations. We propose a new source localization algorithm, named Optimal-Jordan-Cover (OJC). The algorithm first extracts a subgraph using a…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-11-22 Kai Zhu , Zhen Chen , Lei Ying

Conformal prediction is a popular, modern technique for providing valid predictive inference for arbitrary machine learning models. Its validity relies on the assumptions of exchangeability of the data, and symmetry of the given model…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-20 Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas , Ryan J. Tibshirani

In recent years there have been a growing interest in online auditing of information flow over social networks with the goal of monitoring undesirable effects, such as, misinformation and fake news. Most previous work on the subject, focus…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Daniel Toma , Wasim Huleihel

Recent years have seen various rumor diffusion models being assumed in detection of rumor source research of the online social network. Diffusion model is arguably considered as a very important and challengeable factor for source detection…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Rong Jin , Weili Wu

Conformal prediction has emerged as a powerful framework for constructing distribution-free prediction sets with guaranteed coverage assuming only the exchangeability assumption. However, this assumption is often violated in online…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-07 Jungbin Jun , Ilsang Ohn

In this paper we introduce a statistical inference framework for estimating the contagion source from a partially observed contagion spreading process on an arbitrary network structure. The framework is based on a maximum likelihood…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-03-12 Nino Antulov-Fantulin , Alen Lancic , Hrvoje Stefancic , Mile Sikic , Tomislav Smuc

Conformal inference provides a rigorous statistical framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, enabling well-calibrated prediction sets with precise coverage guarantees for any classification model. However, its reliance…

We present a Bayesian approach for the Contamination Source Detection problem in Water Distribution Networks. Given an observation of contaminants in one or more nodes in the network, we try to give probable explanation for it assuming that…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-09-28 Ernesto Ortega , Alfredo Braunstein , Alejandro Lage-Castellanos

We propose a probabilistic formulation that enables sequential detection of multiple change points in a network setting. We present a class of sequential detection rules for certain functionals of change points (minimum among a subset), and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-07-09 Arash Ali Amini , XuanLong Nguyen

We study the problems of estimating the past and future evolutions of two diffusion processes that spread concurrently on a network. Specifically, given a known network $G=(V, \overrightarrow{E})$ and a (possibly noisy) snapshot…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Nouman Khan , Kangle Mu , Mehrdad Moharrami , Vijay Subramanian

We study the problem of identifying the source of emerging large-scale outbreaks of foodborne disease. To solve the source identification problem we formulate a probabilistic model of the contamination diffusion process as a random walk on…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-05-09 Abigail L. Horn , Hanno Friedrich

A morphological brain graph depicting a connectional fingerprint is of paramount importance for charting brain dysconnectivity patterns. Such data often has missing observations due to various reasons such as time-consuming and incomplete…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-10-02 Oytun Demirbilek , Tingying Peng , Alaa Bessadok

Nowadays it is not uncommon to have to deal with dissemination on multi-layered networks and often finding the source of said propagation can be a crucial task. In this paper we tackle this exact problem with a maximum likelihood approach…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-12-04 Robert Paluch , Łukasz G. Gajewski , K. Suchecki , Janusz A. Hołyst

Network datasets appear across a wide range of scientific fields, including biology, physics, and the social sciences. To enable data-driven discoveries from these networks, statistical inference techniques like estimation and hypothesis…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-19 Arpan Kumar , Minh Tang , Srijan Sengupta

Graph Neural Networks have achieved remarkable accuracy in semi-supervised node classification tasks. However, these results lack reliable uncertainty estimates. Conformal prediction methods provide a theoretical guarantee for node…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Jianqing Song , Jianguo Huang , Wenyu Jiang , Baoming Zhang , Shuangjie Li , Chongjun Wang