Related papers: Deep neural expected shortfall regression with tai…
Expected Shortfall (ES) is a coherent measure of tail risk that captures the average loss beyond a quantile threshold. Despite the growing literature on ES regression conditional on covariates, no existing work considers ES modeling in…
Expected Shortfall (ES), also known as superquantile or Conditional Value-at-Risk, has been recognized as an important measure in risk analysis and stochastic optimization, and is also finding applications beyond these areas. In finance, it…
We propose an $\ell_1$-penalized estimator for high-dimensional models of Expected Shortfall (ES). The estimator is obtained as the solution to a least-squares problem for an auxiliary dependent variable, which is defined as a…
A new semi-parametric Expected Shortfall (ES) estimation and forecasting framework is proposed. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation procedure. The first step involves the estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) at different…
To provide a comprehensive summary of the tail distribution, the expected shortfall is defined as the average over the tail above (or below) a certain quantile of the distribution. The expected shortfall regression captures the…
A novel forecast combination and weighted quantile based tail-risk forecasting framework is proposed, aiming to reduce the impact of modelling uncertainty in tail-risk forecasting. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation…
Expected Shortfall (ES) in several variants has been proposed as remedy for the defi-ciencies of Value-at-Risk (VaR) which in general is not a coherent risk measure. In fact, most definitions of ES lead to the same results when applied to…
Expected shortfall is defined as the average over the tail below (or above) a certain quantile of a probability distribution. Expected shortfall regression provides powerful tools for learning the relationship between a response variable…
We propose a non-asymptotic convergence analysis of a two-step approach to learn a conditional value-at-risk (VaR) and a conditional expected shortfall (ES) using Rademacher bounds, in a non-parametric setup allowing for heavy-tails on the…
In this paper, we study the properties of robust nonparametric estimation using deep neural networks for regression models with heavy tailed error distributions. We establish the non-asymptotic error bounds for a class of robust…
Expected Shortfall (ES) is the average return on a risky asset conditional on the return being below some quantile of its distribution, namely its Value-at-Risk (VaR). The Basel III Accord, which will be implemented in the years leading up…
Data subject to heavy-tailed errors are commonly encountered in various scientific fields, especially in the modern era with explosion of massive data. To address this problem, procedures based on quantile regression and Least Absolute…
In this paper, we consider robust nonparametric regression using deep neural networks with ReLU activation function. While several existing theoretically justified methods are geared towards robustness against identical heavy-tailed noise…
High-dimensional data subject to heavy-tailed phenomena and heterogeneity are commonly encountered in various scientific fields and bring new challenges to the classical statistical methods. In this paper, we combine the asymmetric square…
This paper introduces novel backtests for the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES) following the testing idea of Mincer and Zarnowitz (1969). Estimating a regression framework for the ES stand-alone is infeasible, and thus, our tests are…
We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…
Recent developments on deep learning established some theoretical properties of deep neural networks estimators. However, most of the existing works on this topic are restricted to bounded loss functions or (sub)-Gaussian or bounded input.…
We introduce a novel regression framework which simultaneously models the quantile and the Expected Shortfall (ES) of a response variable given a set of covariates. This regression is based on a strictly consistent loss function for the…
As an effective nonparametric method, empirical likelihood (EL) is appealing in combining estimating equations flexibly and adaptively for incorporating data information. To select important variables and estimating equations in the sparse…
In the last five years, expected shortfall (ES) and stressed ES (SES) have become key required regulatory measures of market risk in the banking sector, especially following events such as the global financial crisis. Thus, finding ways to…