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This paper introduces a new methodology for detecting anomalies in time series data, with a primary application to monitoring the health of (micro-) services and cloud resources. The main novelty in our approach is that instead of modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-31 Fadhel Ayed , Lorenzo Stella , Tim Januschowski , Jan Gasthaus

Characterizing the sleep-wake cycle in adolescents is an important prerequisite to better understand the association of abnormal sleep patterns with subsequent clinical and behavioral outcomes. The aim of this research was to develop hidden…

Applications · Statistics 2022-12-22 Semhar B. Ogbagaber , Yifan Cui , Kaigang Li , Ronald J. Iannotti , Paul S. Albert

In this paper, a new model-free anomaly detection framework is proposed for time-series induced by industrial dynamical systems.The framework lies in the category of conventional approaches which enable appealing features such as a learning…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-13 Mazen Alamir , Raphaël Dion

Multivariate time series anomaly detection has numerous real-world applications and is being extensively studied. Modeling pairwise correlations between variables is crucial. Existing methods employ learnable graph structures and graph…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-24 Zehao Liu , Mengzhou Gao , Pengfei Jiao

Cis-regulatory modules (CRMs) composed of multiple transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs) control gene expression in eukaryotic genomes. Comparative genomic studies have shown that these regulatory elements are more conserved across…

Applications · Statistics 2007-09-14 Qing Zhou , Wing Hung Wong

Univariate time series (UTS), where each timestamp records a single variable, serve as crucial indicators in web systems and cloud servers. Anomaly detection in UTS plays an essential role in both data mining and system reliability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-11 Lingpei Zhang , Qingming Li , Yong Yang , Jiahao Chen , Rui Zeng , Chenyang Lyu , Shouling Ji

Scripts have been proposed to model the stereotypical event sequences found in narratives. They can be applied to make a variety of inferences including filling gaps in the narratives and resolving ambiguous references. This paper proposes…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-09-12 J. Walker Orr , Prasad Tadepalli , Janardhan Rao Doppa , Xiaoli Fern , Thomas G. Dietterich

The hidden Markov model (HMM) has been a workhorse of single molecule data analysis and is now commonly used as a standalone tool in time series analysis or in conjunction with other analyses methods such as tracking. Here we provide a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-06-28 Ioannis Sgouralis , Steve Presse

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are powerful tools for analysing time series data that depend on discrete underlying but unobserved states. As such, they have gained prominence across numerous empirical disciplines, in particular ecology,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-19 Jan-Ole Fischer

We propose a Neural Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with Adaptive Granularity Attention (AGA) for high-frequency order flow modeling. The model addresses the challenge of capturing multi-scale temporal dynamics in financial markets, where…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-24 Tianzuo Hu

Modeling continuous-time physiological processes that manifest a patient's evolving clinical states is a key step in approaching many problems in healthcare. In this paper, we develop the Hidden Absorbing Semi-Markov Model (HASMM): a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-12-28 Ahmed M. Alaa , Mihaela van der Schaar

This paper intends to apply the Hidden Markov Model into stock market and and make predictions. Moreover, four different methods of improvement, which are GMM-HMM, XGB-HMM, GMM-HMM+LSTM and XGB-HMM+LSTM, will be discussed later with the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2021-04-21 Mingwen Liu , Junbang Huo , Yulin Wu , Jinge Wu

Hidden Markov models can describe time series arising in various fields of science, by treating the data as noisy measurements of an arbitrarily complex Markov process. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods have become standard tools to…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-19 Pierre E. Jacob

With the development of society, time series anomaly detection plays an important role in network and IoT services. However, most existing anomaly detection methods directly analyze time series in the time domain and cannot distinguish some…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-04 Yi-Xiang Lu , Xiao-Bo Jin , Jian Chen , Dong-Jie Liu , Guang-Gang Geng

Machine learning and data mining techniques have been used extensively in order to detect credit card frauds. However, most studies consider credit card transactions as isolated events and not as a sequence of transactions. In this…

The problems of large-scale multiple testing are often encountered in modern scientific researches. Conventional multiple testing procedures usually suffer considerable loss of testing efficiency due to the lack of consideration of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-21 Pengfei Wang , Zhaofeng Tian

Time series imputation is one of the most challenge problems and has broad applications in various fields like health care and the Internet of Things. Existing methods mainly aim to model the temporally latent dependencies and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Ruichu Cai , Kaitao Zheng , Junxian Huang , Zijian Li , Zhengming Chen , Boyan Xu , Zhifeng Hao

When applying pre-trained large language models (LLMs) to address anomaly detection tasks, the multivariate time series (MTS) modality of anomaly detection does not align with the text modality of LLMs. Existing methods simply transform the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Wei Tao , Xiaoyang Qu , Kai Lu , Jiguang Wan , Guokuan Li , Jianzong Wang

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are powerful tools for modeling sequential data, where the underlying states evolve in a stochastic manner and are only indirectly observable. Traditional HMM approaches are well-established for linear sequences,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-05 Farzan Vafa , Sahand Hormoz

The hidden Markov model (HMM) is a fundamental tool for sequence modeling that cleanly separates the hidden state from the emission structure. However, this separation makes it difficult to fit HMMs to large datasets in modern NLP, and they…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-11-10 Justin T. Chiu , Alexander M. Rush