Related papers: Dynamic Vaccine Prioritization via Non-Markovian F…
Non-Markovian dynamics pervades human activity and social networks and it induces memory effects and burstiness in a wide range of processes including inter-event time distributions, duration of interactions in temporal networks and human…
We propose a mathematical framework, based on conic geometric programming, to control a susceptible-infected-susceptible viral spreading process taking place in a directed contact network with unknown contact rates. We assume that we have…
Vaccination is essential for the management of infectious diseases, many of which continue to pose devastating public health and economic challenges across the world. However, many vaccines are imperfect having only a partial protective…
We introduce synchronizing objectives for Markov decision processes (MDP). Intuitively, a synchronizing objective requires that eventually, at every step there is a state which concentrates almost all the probability mass. In particular, it…
The success of an infectious disease to invade a population is strongly controlled by the population's specific connectivity structure. Here a network model is presented as an aid in understanding the role of social behavior and…
By modeling the interaction of a system with an environment through a renewal approach, we demonstrate that completely positive non-Markovian dynamics may develop some unexplored non-standard statistical properties. The renewal approach is…
Vaccination campaigns play a pivotal role in controlling infectious diseases. Their success, however, depends not only on vaccine efficacy and availability but also significantly on public opinion and the willingness of individuals to…
How to allocate vaccines over heterogeneous individuals is one of the important policy decisions in pandemic times. This paper develops a procedure to estimate an individualized vaccine allocation policy under limited supply, exploiting…
To forecast the time dynamics of an epidemic, we propose a discrete stochastic model that unifies and generalizes previous approaches to the subject. Viewing a given population of individuals or groups of individuals with given health state…
During epidemics people may reduce their social and economic activity to lower their risk of infection. Such social distancing strategies will depend on information about the course of the epidemic but also on when they expect the epidemic…
We introduce a novel compartmental model accounting for the effects of vaccine efficacy, deployment rates and timing of initiation of deployment. We simulate different scenarios and initial conditions, and we find that higher abundancy and…
With significant population fractions in many societies who refuse vaccines, it is important to reconsider how vaccination is incorporated into compartmental epidemiology models. It is still most common to apply the vaccination rate to the…
Modeling human behavior is essential to accurately predict epidemic spread, with behaviors like vaccine hesitancy complicating control efforts. While epidemic spread is often treated as a simple contagion, vaccine uptake may follow complex…
Vaccines not only directly protect vaccinated individuals but also contribute to protect the entire population via indirect herd-immunity benefits. However, researchers have long struggled to quantify these indirect effects at the…
We study the SIRS (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible) spreading processes over complex networks, by considering its exact $3^n$-state Markov chain model. The Markov chain model exhibits an interesting connection with its $2n$-state…
We analyze an optimal control version of a simple SIR epidemiology model that includes a partially specified vaccination policy and takes into account fatigue from protracted application of social distancing measures. The model assumes…
We study the spread of an SIRS-type epidemic with vaccination on network. Starting from an exact Markov description of the model, we investigate the mean epidemic lifetime by providing a sufficient condition for fast extinction that depends…
We introduce a 2-layer network model for the study of the immunization dynamics in epidemics. Spreading of an epidemic is modeled as an excitatory process in a small-world network (body layer) while immunization by prevention for the…
The pursuit of strategies that minimize the number of individuals needing vaccination to control an outbreak is a well-established area of study in mathematical epidemiology. However, for certain diseases, public policy tends to prioritize…
Neglecting the effect that decisions have on individuals (and thus, on the underlying data distribution) when designing algorithmic decision-making policies may increase inequalities and unfairness in the long term - even if fairness…