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This paper presents a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to generate approximate posterior samples in retrospective multiple changepoint problems where the number of changes is not known in advance. The method uses conjugate models whereby the…

Computation · Statistics 2010-11-15 Jason Wyse , Nial Friel

A number of algorithms have been developed to solve probabilistic inference problems on belief networks. These algorithms can be divided into two main groups: exact techniques which exploit the conditional independence revealed when the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-08 Ross D. Shachter , Mark Alan Peot

We develop Bayesian predictive stacking for geostatistical models, where the primary inferential objective is to provide inference on the latent spatial random field and conduct spatial predictions at arbitrary locations. We exploit…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-25 Lu Zhang , Wenpin Tang , Sudipto Banerjee

Approximate Bayesian computation methods can be used to evaluate posterior distributions without having to calculate likelihoods. In this paper we discuss and apply an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method based on sequential Monte…

Computation · Statistics 2009-01-15 Tina Toni , David Welch , Natalja Strelkowa , Andreas Ipsen , Michael P. H. Stumpf

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

We propose a flexible Bayesian approach for estimating the joint density of a multivariate outcome of interest in the presence of categorical covariates. Leveraging a Gaussian copula framework, our method effectively captures the dependence…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-10 Giovanni Toto , Peter Müller , Abhra Sarkar

We present an algorithm that can efficiently compute a broad class of inferences for discrete-time imprecise Markov chains, a generalised type of Markov chains that allows one to take into account partially specified probabilities and other…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-02 Natan T'Joens , Thomas Krak , Jasper De Bock , Gert de Cooman

Collaborative filtering or recommender systems use a database about user preferences to predict additional topics or products a new user might like. In this paper we describe several algorithms designed for this task, including techniques…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2013-02-01 John S. Breese , David Heckerman , Carl Kadie

We describe a class of algorithms for evaluating posterior moments of certain Bayesian linear regression models with a normal likelihood and a normal prior on the regression coefficients. The proposed methods can be used for hierarchical…

Computation · Statistics 2021-10-08 Philip Greengard , Jeremy Hoskins , Charles C. Margossian , Andrew Gelman , Aki Vehtari

Unlike standard linear regression, quantile regression captures the relationship between covariates and the conditional response distribution as a whole, rather than only the relationship between covariates and the expected value of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-19 Isabella N Grabski , Roberta De Vito , Barbara E Engelhardt

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) refers to a family of inference methods used in the Bayesian analysis of complex models where evaluation of the likelihood is difficult. Conventional ABC methods often suffer from the curse of…

Computation · Statistics 2016-07-08 Jingjing Li , David J. Nott , Yanan Fan , Scott A. Sisson

We present a novel Bayesian nonparametric regression model for covariates X and continuous, real response variable Y. The model is parametrized in terms of marginal distributions for Y and X and a regression function which tunes the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-25 Tristan Gray-Davies , Chris Holmes , Francois Caron

Hierarchical Bayesian Poisson regression models (HBPRMs) provide a flexible modeling approach of the relationship between predictors and count response variables. The applications of HBPRMs to large-scale datasets require efficient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-03 Jin-Zhu Yu , Hiba Baroud

In this paper, we study a fast approximate inference method based on expectation propagation for exploring the posterior probability distribution arising from the Bayesian formulation of nonlinear inverse problems. It is capable of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-06-18 Matthias Gehre , Bangti Jin

As modern neural networks get more complex, specifying a model with high predictive performance and sound uncertainty quantification becomes a more challenging task. Despite some promising theoretical results on the true posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-18 Alisa Sheinkman , Sara Wade

This article describes an R package bqror that estimates Bayesian quantile regression for ordinal models introduced in Rahman (2016). The paper classifies ordinal models into two types and offers computationally efficient, yet simple,…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-05-30 Prajual Maheshwari , Mohammad Arshad Rahman

A Monte Carlo algorithm is said to be adaptive if it automatically calibrates its current proposal distribution using past simulations. The choice of the parametric family that defines the set of proposal distributions is critical for good…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-11 Christian Schäfer , Nicolas Chopin

We propose a very fast approximate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling framework that is applicable to a large class of sparse Bayesian inference problems, where the computational cost per iteration in several models is of order…

Computation · Statistics 2021-08-17 Yves Atchadé , Liwei Wang

The analysis of large scale medical claims data has the potential to improve quality of care by generating insights which can be used to create tailored medical programs. In particular, the multivariate probit model can be used to…

We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-18 Giacomo Zanella , Gareth Roberts