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In the field of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), counterfactual examples explain to a user the predictions of a trained decision model by indicating the modifications to be made to the instance so as to change its associated…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-11 Thibault Laugel , Adulam Jeyasothy , Marie-Jeanne Lesot , Christophe Marsala , Marcin Detyniecki

Algorithmic recourse provides actionable recommendations to alter unfavorable predictions of machine learning models, enhancing transparency through counterfactual explanations. While significant progress has been made in algorithmic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Xiao Han , Lu Zhang , Yongkai Wu , Shuhan Yuan

With the widespread accumulation of observational data, researchers obtain a new direction to learn counterfactual effects in many domains (e.g., health care and computational advertising) without Randomized Controlled Trials(RCTs).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-01 Guanglin Zhou , Lina Yao , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu

Time series forecasting has always been a thought-provoking topic in the field of machine learning. Machine learning scientists define a time series as a set of observations recorded over consistent time steps. And, time series forecasting…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-07-19 Payal Kaushik , Sayantan Pramanik , M Girish Chandra , C V Sridhar

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) offer a tangible and actionable way to explain recommendations by showing users a "what-if" scenario that demonstrates how small changes in their history would alter the system's output. However, existing…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-08-13 Arjan Hasami , Masoud Mansoury

Counterfactual explanations (CE) explain model decisions by identifying input modifications that lead to different predictions. Most existing methods operate at the instance level. Distributional Counterfactual Explanations (DCE) extend…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Yikai Gu , Lele Cao , Bo Zhao , Lei Lei , Lei You

In Explainable AI (XAI), counterfactual explanations (CEs) are a well-studied method to communicate feature relevance through contrastive reasoning of "what if" to explain AI models' predictions. However, they only focus on important (i.e.,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-08-21 Tuc Nguyen , James Michels , Hua Shen , Thai Le

Time series forecasting is often fundamental to scientific and engineering problems and enables decision making. With ever increasing data set sizes, a trivial solution to scale up predictions is to assume independence between interacting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-18 Kashif Rasul , Abdul-Saboor Sheikh , Ingmar Schuster , Urs Bergmann , Roland Vollgraf

The availability of large amounts of time series data, paired with the performance of deep-learning algorithms on a broad class of problems, has recently led to significant interest in the use of sequence-to-sequence models for time series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-27 Vitaly Kuznetsov , Zelda Mariet

We propose an architecture for training generative models of counterfactual conditionals of the form, 'can we modify event A to cause B instead of C?', motivated by applications in robot control. Using an 'adversarial training' paradigm, an…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-09-23 Simón C. Smith , Subramanian Ramamoorthy

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is relevant for many applications (e.g., personalized medicine). Yet, state-of-the-art methods build upon simple long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, thus rendering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

Latent variables often mask cause-effect relationships in observational data which provokes spurious links that may be misinterpreted as causal. This problem sparks great interest in the fields such as climate science and economics. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-21 Violeta Teodora Trifunov , Maha Shadaydeh , Joachim Denzler

Counterfactuals, serving as one of the emerging type of model interpretations, have recently received attention from both researchers and practitioners. Counterfactual explanations formalize the exploration of ``what-if'' scenarios, and are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-17 Fan Yang , Sahan Suresh Alva , Jiahao Chen , Xia Hu

Real-world time series often exhibit complex interdependencies that cannot be captured in isolation. Global models that model past data from multiple related time series globally while producing series-specific forecasts locally are now…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-14 Abishek Sriramulu , Christoph Bergmeir , Slawek Smyl

Performance estimation aims at estimating the loss that a predictive model will incur on unseen data. These procedures are part of the pipeline in every machine learning project and are used for assessing the overall generalisation ability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Vitor Cerqueira , Luis Torgo , Igor Mozetic

To collaborate effectively with humans, language models must be able to explain their decisions in natural language. We study a specific type of self-explanation: self-generated counterfactual explanations (SCEs), where a model explains its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-12 Harry Mayne , Ryan Othniel Kearns , Yushi Yang , Andrew M. Bean , Eoin Delaney , Chris Russell , Adam Mahdi

Machine learning can impact people with legal or ethical consequences when it is used to automate decisions in areas such as insurance, lending, hiring, and predictive policing. In many of these scenarios, previous decisions have been made…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-09 Matt J. Kusner , Joshua R. Loftus , Chris Russell , Ricardo Silva

Predictive models are being increasingly used to support consequential decision making at the individual level in contexts such as pretrial bail and loan approval. As a result, there is increasing social and legal pressure to provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-02 Amir-Hossein Karimi , Gilles Barthe , Borja Balle , Isabel Valera

Visual counterfactual explainers (VCEs) are a straightforward and promising approach to enhancing the transparency of image classifiers. VCEs complement other types of explanations, such as feature attribution, by revealing the specific…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Sidney Bender , Jan Herrmann , Klaus-Robert Müller , Grégoire Montavon

Predictive business process monitoring increasingly leverages sophisticated prediction models. Although sophisticated models achieve consistently higher prediction accuracy than simple models, one major drawback is their lack of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-02-25 Tsung-Hao Huang , Andreas Metzger , Klaus Pohl