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This paper studies the generalization of the targeted minimum loss-based estimation (TMLE) framework to estimation of effects of time-varying interventions in settings where both interventions, covariates, and outcome can happen at…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-06 Helene C. Rytgaard , Thomas A. Gerds , Mark J. van der Laan

We study targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) of the average treatment effect in a semiparametric regression model whose mean function is indexed by a finite-dimensional parameter, while the additive error distribution is left…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-20 Mijeong Kim

Causal inference methods for treatment effect estimation usually assume independent units. However, this assumption is often questionable because units may interact, resulting in spillover effects between them. We develop augmented inverse…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Corinne Emmenegger , Meta-Lina Spohn , Timon Elmer , Peter Bühlmann

We propose Deep Longitudinal Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation (Deep LTMLE), a novel approach to estimate the counterfactual mean of outcome under dynamic treatment policies in longitudinal problem settings. Our approach utilizes a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-09 Toru Shirakawa , Yi Li , Yulun Wu , Sky Qiu , Yuxuan Li , Mingduo Zhao , Hiroyasu Iso , Mark van der Laan

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for estimating treatment effects, yet network interference challenges the validity of traditional estimators by violating the stable unit treatment value assumption and introducing bias. While…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-02 Xin Lu , Hongzi Li , Hanzhong Liu

This paper develops a sensitivity analysis framework that transfers the average total treatment effect (ATTE) from source data with a fully observed network to target data whose network is completely unknown. The ATTE represents the average…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-17 Tadao Hoshino

Quantifying the heterogeneity of treatment effect is important for understanding how a commercial product or medical treatment affects different population subgroups. While much of treatment effect heterogeneity analysis focuses on the…

We propose an autoregressive framework for modelling dynamic networks with dependent edges. It encompasses models that accommodate, for example, transitivity, degree heterogenenity, and other stylized features often observed in real network…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-25 Jinyuan Chang , Qin Fang , Eric D. Kolaczyk , Peter W. MacDonald , Qiwei Yao

Network interference, where the outcome of an individual is affected by the treatment assignment of those in their social network, is pervasive in real-world settings. However, it poses a challenge to estimating causal effects. We consider…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-06 Mayleen Cortez-Rodriguez , Matthew Eichhorn , Christina Lee Yu

We propose an Embedding Network Autoregressive Model for multivariate networked longitudinal data. We assume the network is generated from a latent variable model, and these unobserved variables are included in a structural peer effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 Jae Ho Chang , Subhadeep Paul

Estimating causal effects under interference, where the stable unit treatment value assumption is violated, is critical in fields such as regional and public economics. Much of the existing research on causal inference under interference…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Akihiro Sato , Shonosuke Sugasawa

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian

Treatment effect estimation can assist in effective decision-making in e-commerce, medicine, and education. One popular application of this estimation lies in the prediction of the impact of a treatment (e.g., a promotion) on an outcome…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Xiaofeng Lin , Guoxi Zhang , Xiaotian Lu , Han Bao , Koh Takeuchi , Hisashi Kashima

In randomized controlled trials without interference, regression adjustment is widely used to enhance the efficiency of treatment effect estimation. This paper extends this efficiency principle to settings with network interference, where a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-18 Xinyuan Fan , Chenlei Leng , Weichi Wu

In this paper, we develop an analytical approach for estimating brain connectivity networks that accounts for subject heterogeneity. More specifically, we consider a novel extension of a multi-subject Bayesian vector autoregressive model…

In semi-logarithmic regressions, treatment coefficients are often interpreted as approximations of the average treatment effect (ATE) in percentage points. This paper highlights the overlooked bias of this approximation under treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-04 Ying Zeng

Understanding the effects of quarantine policies in populations with underlying social networks is crucial for public health, yet most causal inference methods fail here due to their assumption of independent individuals. We introduce…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Suhan Guo , Furao Shen , Ni Li

To leverage peer influence and increase population behavioral changes, behavioral interventions often rely on peer-based strategies. A common study design that assesses such strategies is the egocentric-network randomized trial (ENRT), in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-04 Ariel Chao , Donna Spiegelman , Ashley Buchanan , Laura Forastiere

The path-loss exponent (PLE) is one of the most crucial parameters in wireless communications to characterize the propagation of fading channels. It is currently adopted for many different kinds of wireless network problems such as power…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-07-12 Yongchang Hu , Geert Leus

Interference--in which a unit's outcome is affected by the treatment of other units--poses significant challenges for the identification and estimation of causal effects. Most existing methods for estimating interference effects assume that…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-14 Yuhua Zhang , Jukka-Pekka Onnela , Shuo Sun , Ruoyu Wang
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