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Probabilistic modeling is one of the foundations of modern machine learning and artificial intelligence. In this paper, we propose a novel type of probabilistic models named latent dependency forest models (LDFMs). A LDFM models the…

Segmented regression models offer model flexibility and interpretability as compared to the global parametric and the nonparametric models, and yet are challenging in both estimation and inference. We consider a four-regime segmented model…

The random subspace method, known as the pillar of random forests, is good at making precise and robust predictions. However, there is not a straightforward way yet to combine it with deep learning. In this paper, we therefore propose…

Random forests are a widely used machine learning algorithm, but their computational efficiency is undermined when applied to large-scale datasets with numerous instances and useless features. Herein, we propose a nonparametric feature…

We introduce deep switching auto-regressive factorization (DSARF), a deep generative model for spatio-temporal data with the capability to unravel recurring patterns in the data and perform robust short- and long-term predictions. Similar…

Time series prediction covers a vast field of every-day statistical applications in medical, environmental and economic domains. In this paper we develop nonparametric prediction strategies based on the combination of a set of 'experts' and…

This paper provides insight into when, why, and how forecast strategies fail when they are applied to complicated time series. We conjecture that the inherent complexity of real-world time-series data---which results from the dimension,…

Forecasting multivariate time series is a computationally intensive task challenged by extreme or redundant samples. Recent resampling methods aim to increase training efficiency by reweighting samples based on their running losses.…

We propose a random forest estimator for the intensity of spatial point processes, applicable with or without covariates. It retains the well-known advantages of a random forest approach, including the ability to handle a large number of…

Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) is a form of link-tracing sampling, a sampling technique used for `hard-to-reach' populations that aims to leverage individuals' social relationships to reach potential participants. While the methodological…

Statistical wisdom suggests that very complex models, interpolating training data, will be poor at predicting unseen examples.Yet, this aphorism has been recently challenged by the identification of benign overfitting regimes, specially…

Random Forests (RF) are at the cutting edge of supervised machine learning in terms of prediction performance, especially in genomics. Iterative Random Forests (iRF) use a tree ensemble from iteratively modified RF to obtain predictive and…

This paper presents a novel ensemble learning approach called Residual Likelihood Forests (RLF). Our weak learners produce conditional likelihoods that are sequentially optimized using global loss in the context of previous learners within…

A biomechanical model often requires parameter estimation and selection in a known but complicated nonlinear function. Motivated by observing that data from a head-neck position tracking system, one of biomechanical models, show…

Battery performance datasets are typically non-normal and multicollinear. Extrapolating such datasets for model predictions needs attention to such characteristics. This study explores the impact of data normality in building machine…

Since survival data occur over time, often important covariates that we wish to consider also change over time. Such covariates are referred as time-dependent covariates. Quantile regression offers flexible modeling of survival data by…

Decision trees are widely used for classification and regression tasks in a variety of application fields due to their interpretability and good accuracy. During the past decade, growing attention has been devoted to globally optimized…

Weighted empirical risk minimization is a common approach to prediction under distribution drift. This article studies its out-of-sample prediction error under nonstationarity. We provide a general decomposition of the excess risk into a…

Although regression trees were originally designed for large datasets, they can profitably be used on small datasets as well, including those from replicated or unreplicated complete factorial experiments. We show that in the latter…

The paper describes an application of the tree classification method Random Forest (RF), as used in the analysis of data from the ground-based gamma telescope MAGIC. In such telescopes, cosmic gamma-rays are observed and have to be…